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	<title>Comments on: Hot Air</title>
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	<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2009/11/02/hot-air/</link>
	<description>The Big Questions &#124; Tackling the Problems of Philosophy with Ideas from Mathematics, Economics, and Physics</description>
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		<title>By: In the news &#124; Stand-Up Economist</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2009/11/02/hot-air/comment-page-1/#comment-226</link>
		<dc:creator>In the news &#124; Stand-Up Economist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:59:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=517#comment-226</guid>
		<description>[...] Landsburg gives me one point but doesn&#8217;t end up taking my side with Superfreakonomics. He does, however, point out some [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Landsburg gives me one point but doesn&#8217;t end up taking my side with Superfreakonomics. He does, however, point out some [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Vangel</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2009/11/02/hot-air/comment-page-1/#comment-166</link>
		<dc:creator>Vangel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:22:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=517#comment-166</guid>
		<description>“First, Levitt and Dubner are accused of minimizing the problem.”

Actually, it is the opposite.  They play up to the shoddy narratives that pretend to be real science and ignore the fact that after $100 billion in spending there isn&#039;t a single empirical study that backs up the scary predictions made by the IPCC.  The pretence of consensus is not very useful because even if there were consensus on something meaningful it could simply be wrong.  After all, the overwhelming consensus on eugenics, lobotomies, the causes of ulcers, the superiority of central planning, the competence and prudence of central bankers etc., all proved to be wrong.  

In the real world what matters is empirical evidence, not models or narratives.  Until the IPCC and the AGW proponents can show that the feedback assumptions that create the scary warming scenarios have merit it is to be treated with the contempt that most political bureaucracies deserve.  And until there is a free and open debate the AGW proponents who run from such a debate are to be dismissed as empty suits who know a lot less than they imagine.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>“First, Levitt and Dubner are accused of minimizing the problem.”</p>
<p>Actually, it is the opposite.  They play up to the shoddy narratives that pretend to be real science and ignore the fact that after $100 billion in spending there isn&#8217;t a single empirical study that backs up the scary predictions made by the IPCC.  The pretence of consensus is not very useful because even if there were consensus on something meaningful it could simply be wrong.  After all, the overwhelming consensus on eugenics, lobotomies, the causes of ulcers, the superiority of central planning, the competence and prudence of central bankers etc., all proved to be wrong.  </p>
<p>In the real world what matters is empirical evidence, not models or narratives.  Until the IPCC and the AGW proponents can show that the feedback assumptions that create the scary warming scenarios have merit it is to be treated with the contempt that most political bureaucracies deserve.  And until there is a free and open debate the AGW proponents who run from such a debate are to be dismissed as empty suits who know a lot less than they imagine.</p>
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		<title>By: Zach</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2009/11/02/hot-air/comment-page-1/#comment-164</link>
		<dc:creator>Zach</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 09:36:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=517#comment-164</guid>
		<description>The climate change chapter really needs to be looked at in the context of the rest of the book. It&#039;s like the last chapter in a textbook, they explore how principles discussed earlier can be applied to this new problem.

Geoengineering, for example, is treated as a possible cheap bottom up solution to what appears as an expensive and intractable problem when addressed from the top down. Their introduction gives an historical example of just such a solution (automobiles completely eliminating the problem of horse manure in growing cities). Their discussion of how television has improved the lives of Indian women can be seen as another example.

The power of bottom up innovation compared to top down planning was probably the strongest theme of the book but there are others that show up throughout the book that return in chapter 5. 

Another theme is how hard it can be to get people to do what they know is right, much less getting them to behave altruistically. Feied&#039;s story of the difficulty of getting modern day doctors to wash their hands is directly related to how difficult it will be to get people to change their consumption habits in order to reduce CO2. 

Seriously, read the first four chapters then re-read chapter 5. It gives you a completely different perspective and makes their choice of climate related subjects far less controversial. Looked at holistically, their choices in chapter 5 make sense as examples of how to apply earlier tidbits of economic reasoning to the subject of global warming.

What I was most disappointed in was a great teachable moment in their prostitution chapter. Their high priced call girl raised her rates from $300 an hour to $500 an hour with no discernible impact on demand. Immediately I thought &quot;Cool, there could be a lot of things going on like very inelastic demand, a non competitive market or perhaps it&#039;s a market that isn&#039;t in equilibrium. This could be an example of a market where the supply and demand curves don&#039;t meet for some reason.&quot; They had an opportunity to illustrate a lot of consumption theory with that observation alone. Instead, they carry on with the story and eventually come to the conclusion that more call girls would necessarily lower prices. It felt like they dropped the ball there.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The climate change chapter really needs to be looked at in the context of the rest of the book. It&#8217;s like the last chapter in a textbook, they explore how principles discussed earlier can be applied to this new problem.</p>
<p>Geoengineering, for example, is treated as a possible cheap bottom up solution to what appears as an expensive and intractable problem when addressed from the top down. Their introduction gives an historical example of just such a solution (automobiles completely eliminating the problem of horse manure in growing cities). Their discussion of how television has improved the lives of Indian women can be seen as another example.</p>
<p>The power of bottom up innovation compared to top down planning was probably the strongest theme of the book but there are others that show up throughout the book that return in chapter 5. </p>
<p>Another theme is how hard it can be to get people to do what they know is right, much less getting them to behave altruistically. Feied&#8217;s story of the difficulty of getting modern day doctors to wash their hands is directly related to how difficult it will be to get people to change their consumption habits in order to reduce CO2. </p>
<p>Seriously, read the first four chapters then re-read chapter 5. It gives you a completely different perspective and makes their choice of climate related subjects far less controversial. Looked at holistically, their choices in chapter 5 make sense as examples of how to apply earlier tidbits of economic reasoning to the subject of global warming.</p>
<p>What I was most disappointed in was a great teachable moment in their prostitution chapter. Their high priced call girl raised her rates from $300 an hour to $500 an hour with no discernible impact on demand. Immediately I thought &#8220;Cool, there could be a lot of things going on like very inelastic demand, a non competitive market or perhaps it&#8217;s a market that isn&#8217;t in equilibrium. This could be an example of a market where the supply and demand curves don&#8217;t meet for some reason.&#8221; They had an opportunity to illustrate a lot of consumption theory with that observation alone. Instead, they carry on with the story and eventually come to the conclusion that more call girls would necessarily lower prices. It felt like they dropped the ball there.</p>
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		<title>By: Cody</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2009/11/02/hot-air/comment-page-1/#comment-162</link>
		<dc:creator>Cody</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 03:48:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=517#comment-162</guid>
		<description>Right, but Levitt and Dubner don&#039;t present the global cooling episode as media hype.   They seem to be implying that there was a scientific consensus in each case and the scientists were wrong the first time.    This is the problem critics have with it, and is why pointing out that Levitt and Dubner say there is a broad scientific consensus now does little to respond to these critics.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Right, but Levitt and Dubner don&#8217;t present the global cooling episode as media hype.   They seem to be implying that there was a scientific consensus in each case and the scientists were wrong the first time.    This is the problem critics have with it, and is why pointing out that Levitt and Dubner say there is a broad scientific consensus now does little to respond to these critics.</p>
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		<title>By: greenfyre</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2009/11/02/hot-air/comment-page-1/#comment-161</link>
		<dc:creator>greenfyre</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 03:42:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=517#comment-161</guid>
		<description>&quot;First, Levitt and Dubner are accused of minimizing the problem.&quot;

Not in the least, they are principally criticized having conducted shoddy, lazy research that resulted in a book chapter that is error filled nonsense, as is well documented at the many links collected here:
http://leftasanexercise.simulating-reality.com/?p=90
Building on that foundation, is it any wonder that their discussion and conclusions are drivel?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;First, Levitt and Dubner are accused of minimizing the problem.&#8221;</p>
<p>Not in the least, they are principally criticized having conducted shoddy, lazy research that resulted in a book chapter that is error filled nonsense, as is well documented at the many links collected here:<br />
<a href="http://leftasanexercise.simulating-reality.com/?p=90" rel="nofollow">http://leftasanexercise.simulating-reality.com/?p=90</a><br />
Building on that foundation, is it any wonder that their discussion and conclusions are drivel?</p>
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		<title>By: Phil</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2009/11/02/hot-air/comment-page-1/#comment-160</link>
		<dc:creator>Phil</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 01:27:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=517#comment-160</guid>
		<description>Cody -the global cooling hype was not a broad consensus, and apparently was just a few people.  Today&#039;s gw science is better accepted and represents a lot of scientists.  I am not such a scientist, but that is what I read.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Cody -the global cooling hype was not a broad consensus, and apparently was just a few people.  Today&#8217;s gw science is better accepted and represents a lot of scientists.  I am not such a scientist, but that is what I read.</p>
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		<title>By: Cody</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2009/11/02/hot-air/comment-page-1/#comment-159</link>
		<dc:creator>Cody</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:29:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=517#comment-159</guid>
		<description>What?  How are the positions &quot;Levitt and Dubner equate today’s legitimate concern about global warming with that brief episode of media hype&quot; and “There is essentially a consensus among climate scientists that the earth’s temperature has been rising and, increasingly, agreement that human activity has played an important role” at all contradictory?  Isn&#039;t the second statement in fact a prerequisite for believing the first?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What?  How are the positions &#8220;Levitt and Dubner equate today’s legitimate concern about global warming with that brief episode of media hype&#8221; and “There is essentially a consensus among climate scientists that the earth’s temperature has been rising and, increasingly, agreement that human activity has played an important role” at all contradictory?  Isn&#8217;t the second statement in fact a prerequisite for believing the first?</p>
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		<title>By: David Friedman</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2009/11/02/hot-air/comment-page-1/#comment-157</link>
		<dc:creator>David Friedman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:15:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=517#comment-157</guid>
		<description>One further point is worth mentioning, given the reference to a low but significant chance of catastrophe. Given the present state of knowledge, a low but significant chance of catastrophe also exists in the other direction.

We are currently in an interglacial. Interglacials typically last about ten thousand years, with a good deal of variation. As a very crude back of the envelope estimate, that gives us one chance in ten thousand each year that the interglacial will end--or about a one percent chance in a century.

A mile of ice over the present locations of Chicago and London, and a sea level drop of hundreds of feet, I think classifies as catastrophe. It&#039;s at least possible that global warming due to human action is what is currently preventing it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One further point is worth mentioning, given the reference to a low but significant chance of catastrophe. Given the present state of knowledge, a low but significant chance of catastrophe also exists in the other direction.</p>
<p>We are currently in an interglacial. Interglacials typically last about ten thousand years, with a good deal of variation. As a very crude back of the envelope estimate, that gives us one chance in ten thousand each year that the interglacial will end&#8211;or about a one percent chance in a century.</p>
<p>A mile of ice over the present locations of Chicago and London, and a sea level drop of hundreds of feet, I think classifies as catastrophe. It&#8217;s at least possible that global warming due to human action is what is currently preventing it.</p>
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		<title>By: Assorted Links (11/2/2009) &#8211; Jim Garven&#39;s Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2009/11/02/hot-air/comment-page-1/#comment-152</link>
		<dc:creator>Assorted Links (11/2/2009) &#8211; Jim Garven&#39;s Blog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:16:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=517#comment-152</guid>
		<description>[...] Hot Air, by Steve Landsburg [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Hot Air, by Steve Landsburg [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Landsburg on SuperFreakonomics and Global Warming &#171; Daniel Joseph Smith</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2009/11/02/hot-air/comment-page-1/#comment-149</link>
		<dc:creator>Landsburg on SuperFreakonomics and Global Warming &#171; Daniel Joseph Smith</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:51:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=517#comment-149</guid>
		<description>[...] Landsburg on SuperFreakonomics and Global&#160;Warming By Daniel J. Smith  http://www.thebigquestions.com/2009/11/02/hot-air/ [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Landsburg on SuperFreakonomics and Global&nbsp;Warming By Daniel J. Smith  <a href="http://www.thebigquestions.com/2009/11/02/hot-air/" rel="nofollow">http://www.thebigquestions.com/2009/11/02/hot-air/</a> [...]</p>
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