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	<title>Comments on: Unbelievable</title>
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	<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2010/01/04/unbelievable/</link>
	<description>The Big Questions &#124; Tackling the Problems of Philosophy with Ideas from Mathematics, Economics, and Physics</description>
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		<title>By: Cos</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2010/01/04/unbelievable/comment-page-1/#comment-1754</link>
		<dc:creator>Cos</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Jan 2010 17:46:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=1651#comment-1754</guid>
		<description>lazydog: I highly doubt this post is specifically about religion, and I don&#039;t even think it&#039;s intended to really apply to religion.  Religion, for a lot of people, is about beliefs they *do* examine, but have specifically decided not to demand a &quot;how exactly does that work&quot; explanation for.  This post is about things people believe without having thought about, and which they would not hold if they discovered there were no such explanation for.

ThomasL: Turns out the reason is a vortex of circulating air induced by the shower water.  People always explained it in terms of different air pressure on either side, but the way that happened was misunderstood.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=why-does-the-shower-curta</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>lazydog: I highly doubt this post is specifically about religion, and I don&#8217;t even think it&#8217;s intended to really apply to religion.  Religion, for a lot of people, is about beliefs they *do* examine, but have specifically decided not to demand a &#8220;how exactly does that work&#8221; explanation for.  This post is about things people believe without having thought about, and which they would not hold if they discovered there were no such explanation for.</p>
<p>ThomasL: Turns out the reason is a vortex of circulating air induced by the shower water.  People always explained it in terms of different air pressure on either side, but the way that happened was misunderstood.<br />
<a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=why-does-the-shower-curta" rel="nofollow">http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=why-does-the-shower-curta</a></p>
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		<title>By: Weekend Roundup at Steven Landsburg &#124; The Big Questions: Tackling the Problems of Philosophy with Ideas from Mathematics, Economics, and Physics</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2010/01/04/unbelievable/comment-page-1/#comment-1752</link>
		<dc:creator>Weekend Roundup at Steven Landsburg &#124; The Big Questions: Tackling the Problems of Philosophy with Ideas from Mathematics, Economics, and Physics</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Jan 2010 07:03:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=1651#comment-1752</guid>
		<description>[...] the week with two posts about unwarranted beliefs&#8212;my own unwarranted belief in the power of bathtub hardware and Moody&#8217;s economist Mark Zandi&#8217;s unwarranted belief in the power of fiscal [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] the week with two posts about unwarranted beliefs&#8212;my own unwarranted belief in the power of bathtub hardware and Moody&#8217;s economist Mark Zandi&#8217;s unwarranted belief in the power of fiscal [...]</p>
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		<title>By: RL</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2010/01/04/unbelievable/comment-page-1/#comment-1590</link>
		<dc:creator>RL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Jan 2010 06:44:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=1651#comment-1590</guid>
		<description>&quot;people speak a lot of nonsense. (I am one of those people. So are you.) You might be tempted to conclude that people are dumb, but I’m more inclined to conclude that people are busy.&quot;

And yet the &quot;dumb&quot; hypothesis explains so much...

Note, for example, that it explains the fact that so many people are not strikingly competent even in the things they are busy in...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;people speak a lot of nonsense. (I am one of those people. So are you.) You might be tempted to conclude that people are dumb, but I’m more inclined to conclude that people are busy.&#8221;</p>
<p>And yet the &#8220;dumb&#8221; hypothesis explains so much&#8230;</p>
<p>Note, for example, that it explains the fact that so many people are not strikingly competent even in the things they are busy in&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Bennett Haselton</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2010/01/04/unbelievable/comment-page-1/#comment-1589</link>
		<dc:creator>Bennett Haselton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Jan 2010 06:32:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=1651#comment-1589</guid>
		<description>Steve,

I think there&#039;s an inconsistency in how some of your writings treat people&#039;s small-scale actions, and how they reflect our beliefs.

You&#039;ve said that when you say people don&#039;t &quot;really&quot; believe the tenets of their religion, you mean that they would jettison those beliefs if anything huge (like their own life) hung in the balance.  Small-scale actions, like putting a dollar anonymously into the collection plate, don&#039;t count.

On the other hand, you&#039;ve said that if someone pays a dollar to avoid a one-in-a-million chance of death, that indicates that they value their life at about a million dollars.

So, which is it?  Do small-scale actions betray our &quot;true&quot; beliefs, or don&#039;t they?  If someone anonymously donates a dollar to the church, why doesn&#039;t that reflect their &quot;true&quot; beliefs just as much as paying a dollar to avoid a one-in-a-million chance of death?  Is there some way to reconcile these that I&#039;m not seeing?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Steve,</p>
<p>I think there&#8217;s an inconsistency in how some of your writings treat people&#8217;s small-scale actions, and how they reflect our beliefs.</p>
<p>You&#8217;ve said that when you say people don&#8217;t &#8220;really&#8221; believe the tenets of their religion, you mean that they would jettison those beliefs if anything huge (like their own life) hung in the balance.  Small-scale actions, like putting a dollar anonymously into the collection plate, don&#8217;t count.</p>
<p>On the other hand, you&#8217;ve said that if someone pays a dollar to avoid a one-in-a-million chance of death, that indicates that they value their life at about a million dollars.</p>
<p>So, which is it?  Do small-scale actions betray our &#8220;true&#8221; beliefs, or don&#8217;t they?  If someone anonymously donates a dollar to the church, why doesn&#8217;t that reflect their &#8220;true&#8221; beliefs just as much as paying a dollar to avoid a one-in-a-million chance of death?  Is there some way to reconcile these that I&#8217;m not seeing?</p>
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		<title>By: Izzydog</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2010/01/04/unbelievable/comment-page-1/#comment-1587</link>
		<dc:creator>Izzydog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Jan 2010 02:55:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=1651#comment-1587</guid>
		<description>So is the point of this article that your belief in bathtub silver plates is equivalent to other’s belief in God, and if those incurious believers just looked hard enough they would immediately abandon their irrational belief in God just as you did with the silver bathtub plate?  Okay, a colossal, arrogant, and fundamental misunderstanding of human nature, suffering the same problem that almost all comparisons to Nazis suffers – one of scale, but okay God and bathtub drain plates are equivalent matters.   We’ll call it the JL theory.

So at this point, according to JL theory, are we to assume that all true believing, church going, charity donating, praying, people  who vote their irrational beliefs, write opinion pieces, talk endlessly on the radio, or whatever else they do in the name of their religion are acting irrationally when they engage in these behaviors?  If so, why would you assume they suddenly become rational actors when it comes to the affairs of the marketplace?  Especially when the two intersect so much?

Or, according to JL theory, are we to assume true believers are really rational actors in everything they do despite their beliefs because all the hours and effort that church going, charity giving, praying, radio talking, legislation writing, intelligent design proselytizing, is really of no impact or consequence to their lives?  But, according to JL theory, if they weren’t so busy trying to be what they estimate to be good based on their irrational beliefs, they would finally have enough time to examine the thing they think drives them to engage in these activities in the first place?  And yet, because they are already  rational actors in the marketplace, even if they examine their belief in God nothing would change at all.  Heck of a theory.  

Or, is it just possible, that the belief in a marketplace with rational actors is just another bathtub drain plate. Some economists just believe that they believe.  After all, belief in it is of no interference or consequence to anyone’s life...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So is the point of this article that your belief in bathtub silver plates is equivalent to other’s belief in God, and if those incurious believers just looked hard enough they would immediately abandon their irrational belief in God just as you did with the silver bathtub plate?  Okay, a colossal, arrogant, and fundamental misunderstanding of human nature, suffering the same problem that almost all comparisons to Nazis suffers – one of scale, but okay God and bathtub drain plates are equivalent matters.   We’ll call it the JL theory.</p>
<p>So at this point, according to JL theory, are we to assume that all true believing, church going, charity donating, praying, people  who vote their irrational beliefs, write opinion pieces, talk endlessly on the radio, or whatever else they do in the name of their religion are acting irrationally when they engage in these behaviors?  If so, why would you assume they suddenly become rational actors when it comes to the affairs of the marketplace?  Especially when the two intersect so much?</p>
<p>Or, according to JL theory, are we to assume true believers are really rational actors in everything they do despite their beliefs because all the hours and effort that church going, charity giving, praying, radio talking, legislation writing, intelligent design proselytizing, is really of no impact or consequence to their lives?  But, according to JL theory, if they weren’t so busy trying to be what they estimate to be good based on their irrational beliefs, they would finally have enough time to examine the thing they think drives them to engage in these activities in the first place?  And yet, because they are already  rational actors in the marketplace, even if they examine their belief in God nothing would change at all.  Heck of a theory.  </p>
<p>Or, is it just possible, that the belief in a marketplace with rational actors is just another bathtub drain plate. Some economists just believe that they believe.  After all, belief in it is of no interference or consequence to anyone’s life&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Revyloution</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2010/01/04/unbelievable/comment-page-1/#comment-1586</link>
		<dc:creator>Revyloution</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Jan 2010 00:30:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=1651#comment-1586</guid>
		<description>Stick with the Press N Seal.  Duct tape will just get old, sticky and nasty looking.  The Press N Seal is nice, clean and easily replaced.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Stick with the Press N Seal.  Duct tape will just get old, sticky and nasty looking.  The Press N Seal is nice, clean and easily replaced.</p>
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		<title>By: val</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2010/01/04/unbelievable/comment-page-1/#comment-1584</link>
		<dc:creator>val</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Jan 2010 22:15:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=1651#comment-1584</guid>
		<description>Sierra - as long as you don&#039;t splash over the side you&#039;re golden.  

If you&#039;re in the US and lacking a drain in the bathroom floor, overspilling the side of the tub is indeed an apocalypse! 

(I use Press N Seal only b/c I keep forgetting to buy duct tape.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sierra &#8211; as long as you don&#8217;t splash over the side you&#8217;re golden.  </p>
<p>If you&#8217;re in the US and lacking a drain in the bathroom floor, overspilling the side of the tub is indeed an apocalypse! </p>
<p>(I use Press N Seal only b/c I keep forgetting to buy duct tape.)</p>
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		<title>By: Sierra Black</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2010/01/04/unbelievable/comment-page-1/#comment-1582</link>
		<dc:creator>Sierra Black</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Jan 2010 20:51:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=1651#comment-1582</guid>
		<description>I was just wondering yesterday why our new bathtub was so much more pleasant to bathe in than the one in our previous home. Answer: someone who lived here before me put duct-tape over the overflow drain in that big metal plate, and now I can fill the tub deep enough to actual cover my body with warm water!

Prior to discovering this, I too believed that some sort of bathtime apocalypse would ensue should I overfill the tub.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was just wondering yesterday why our new bathtub was so much more pleasant to bathe in than the one in our previous home. Answer: someone who lived here before me put duct-tape over the overflow drain in that big metal plate, and now I can fill the tub deep enough to actual cover my body with warm water!</p>
<p>Prior to discovering this, I too believed that some sort of bathtime apocalypse would ensue should I overfill the tub.</p>
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		<title>By: val</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2010/01/04/unbelievable/comment-page-1/#comment-1581</link>
		<dc:creator>val</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Jan 2010 18:57:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=1651#comment-1581</guid>
		<description>In a lot of bathtubs the metal plate with lever also has a hole in it for overflow.  Those without the lever will usually have a plate with a hole in it anyway, or some (like sinks) will have just a hole to extra drain. 

Since this hole seldom has water going through it (unless you&#039;re like me, and try to get the bathtub as deep as it&#039;ll accept) there&#039;s the danger that said drain is corroded (as the person above mentioned) and also that it can&#039;t handle the amount of water handed to it.  Or worse, that the hole didn&#039;t get properly connected to the plumbing on install. 

But it&#039;s /supposed/ to be ThatAnnoyingExtraDrainThat&#039;sFarTooFreakingShallow, which doesn&#039;t exist in most of Europe/NZ/presumably elseworld &#039;cause they&#039;re sensible and just put a drain on the bathroom floor, or doesn&#039;t cause me problems when I want a ProperBath* because I&#039;ve started using Glad PressNSeal to cover it.

(This method is best used by people who fill the bath while in it, as otherwise you /will/ get an Enormous Flood when you get in and displace your bodyworth of water.)

*in England the house had a bathtub I could&#039;ve easily drowned in</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a lot of bathtubs the metal plate with lever also has a hole in it for overflow.  Those without the lever will usually have a plate with a hole in it anyway, or some (like sinks) will have just a hole to extra drain. </p>
<p>Since this hole seldom has water going through it (unless you&#8217;re like me, and try to get the bathtub as deep as it&#8217;ll accept) there&#8217;s the danger that said drain is corroded (as the person above mentioned) and also that it can&#8217;t handle the amount of water handed to it.  Or worse, that the hole didn&#8217;t get properly connected to the plumbing on install. </p>
<p>But it&#8217;s /supposed/ to be ThatAnnoyingExtraDrainThat&#8217;sFarTooFreakingShallow, which doesn&#8217;t exist in most of Europe/NZ/presumably elseworld &#8217;cause they&#8217;re sensible and just put a drain on the bathroom floor, or doesn&#8217;t cause me problems when I want a ProperBath* because I&#8217;ve started using Glad PressNSeal to cover it.</p>
<p>(This method is best used by people who fill the bath while in it, as otherwise you /will/ get an Enormous Flood when you get in and displace your bodyworth of water.)</p>
<p>*in England the house had a bathtub I could&#8217;ve easily drowned in</p>
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		<title>By: Revyloution</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2010/01/04/unbelievable/comment-page-1/#comment-1580</link>
		<dc:creator>Revyloution</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Jan 2010 18:35:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=1651#comment-1580</guid>
		<description>I found your blog after hearing you on Talk of the Nation on NPR last week.  It looks like a nice place to move in, and I look forward to reading your book.

I know I had an unusual childhood (didn&#039;t we all?), but I was inoculated against the idea of &#039;beliefs&#039;.  My parents never talked to me about religions or gods, it was a non topic. It was similar for politics.  Being raised like this taught me to hold on very lightly to anything that I hold as &#039;truth&#039;.

The closest thing I ever had to a belief was the idea of Free Will.  It feels like I make choices, so I just assumed that I had it.  Someone challenged me that all life was deterministic, so I began reading a great deal on it. I finally agreed that all life is deterministic, and that free will is an illusion. (Comparing the Maugrim, and Stanford Prison experiments with the real world actions of Rwanda, Bosnia, and of course the Nazis started me down that road)  I was very pleased to learn that I could easily change a firmly held belief so easily.

As for the bathtub, I&#039;ve installed a few tubs.  Let me explain the mechanism.

The metal plate that holds the plug handle is attached to a pipe that is connected to the P-trap below the tub.  Pulling up on the handle closes a flap that connects the tub drain to the P-trap.  When the drain is closed, the metal plate is still open to the P-trap.  If the tub is filled to that plate, water will drain into it and down into the P-trap.  Look at the bottom of the plate, you will see a gap where the water can flow in.

For the plumbing uninitiated, a P-trap is a sideways &#039;S&#039; shaped pipe that traps a small amount of water to prevent the smells from the sewer rising up into your home.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I found your blog after hearing you on Talk of the Nation on NPR last week.  It looks like a nice place to move in, and I look forward to reading your book.</p>
<p>I know I had an unusual childhood (didn&#8217;t we all?), but I was inoculated against the idea of &#8216;beliefs&#8217;.  My parents never talked to me about religions or gods, it was a non topic. It was similar for politics.  Being raised like this taught me to hold on very lightly to anything that I hold as &#8216;truth&#8217;.</p>
<p>The closest thing I ever had to a belief was the idea of Free Will.  It feels like I make choices, so I just assumed that I had it.  Someone challenged me that all life was deterministic, so I began reading a great deal on it. I finally agreed that all life is deterministic, and that free will is an illusion. (Comparing the Maugrim, and Stanford Prison experiments with the real world actions of Rwanda, Bosnia, and of course the Nazis started me down that road)  I was very pleased to learn that I could easily change a firmly held belief so easily.</p>
<p>As for the bathtub, I&#8217;ve installed a few tubs.  Let me explain the mechanism.</p>
<p>The metal plate that holds the plug handle is attached to a pipe that is connected to the P-trap below the tub.  Pulling up on the handle closes a flap that connects the tub drain to the P-trap.  When the drain is closed, the metal plate is still open to the P-trap.  If the tub is filled to that plate, water will drain into it and down into the P-trap.  Look at the bottom of the plate, you will see a gap where the water can flow in.</p>
<p>For the plumbing uninitiated, a P-trap is a sideways &#8216;S&#8217; shaped pipe that traps a small amount of water to prevent the smells from the sewer rising up into your home.</p>
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