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	<title>Comments on: The Numbers Racket</title>
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	<description>The Big Questions &#124; Tackling the Problems of Philosophy with Ideas from Mathematics, Economics, and Physics</description>
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		<title>By: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics (40): The Composition Effect &#124; P.a.p.-Blog, Human Rights Etc.</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2012/07/30/the-numbers-racket/comment-page-1/#comment-62053</link>
		<dc:creator>Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics (40): The Composition Effect &#124; P.a.p.-Blog, Human Rights Etc.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Aug 2012 10:10:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=7809#comment-62053</guid>
		<description>[...] naturally assume that there have been hardly any income gains for the average US citizen. However, some have argued that this conclusion is wrong because it ignores the composition effect. In this [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] naturally assume that there have been hardly any income gains for the average US citizen. However, some have argued that this conclusion is wrong because it ignores the composition effect. In this [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Paul T</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2012/07/30/the-numbers-racket/comment-page-1/#comment-61418</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul T</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Aug 2012 00:21:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=7809#comment-61418</guid>
		<description>SL:  &quot;White men? Nope, their median income is up 15%. Nonwhite men? 
Up 16%. White women? Up 75%. Non-white women? Up 62%. That’s 
everybody:  .... 

What gives? How can the median income shoot up in every demographic sector while the overall median remains nearly unchanged?
...
I lifted these numbers from Edward Conard’s new book Unintended 
Consequences&quot;
******************************** 

This is good.  I also recommend John Paulos&#039; &quot;A mathematician 
reads the newspaper&quot;, full of similar anecdotes.

I saw another example recently.  Some brainiac commented 
that, while low interest rates have saved mortgage and consumer 
service costs $200 billion, interest income is down $400 
billion.  (no source given)

huh?  Isn&#039;t finance zero sum, one man&#039;s payment is  
another&#039;s receipt?

What are people thinking, when they say things like that?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>SL:  &#8220;White men? Nope, their median income is up 15%. Nonwhite men?<br />
Up 16%. White women? Up 75%. Non-white women? Up 62%. That’s<br />
everybody:  &#8230;. </p>
<p>What gives? How can the median income shoot up in every demographic sector while the overall median remains nearly unchanged?<br />
&#8230;<br />
I lifted these numbers from Edward Conard’s new book Unintended<br />
Consequences&#8221;<br />
******************************** </p>
<p>This is good.  I also recommend John Paulos&#8217; &#8220;A mathematician<br />
reads the newspaper&#8221;, full of similar anecdotes.</p>
<p>I saw another example recently.  Some brainiac commented<br />
that, while low interest rates have saved mortgage and consumer<br />
service costs $200 billion, interest income is down $400<br />
billion.  (no source given)</p>
<p>huh?  Isn&#8217;t finance zero sum, one man&#8217;s payment is<br />
another&#8217;s receipt?</p>
<p>What are people thinking, when they say things like that?</p>
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		<title>By: David</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2012/07/30/the-numbers-racket/comment-page-1/#comment-61338</link>
		<dc:creator>David</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Aug 2012 18:19:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=7809#comment-61338</guid>
		<description>There is another factor that I think people are missing.  Income levels are like floors in a huge mall.  Imagine that each person has their very own escalator in the mall.  When you begin your life (unless of course you come from money), you start at the ground floor and as you go through life you generally climb up.  Sometimes you get stuck at a floor for a while, sometimes something bad happens and the escalator drops you down but overall it climbs through your working life.  Now the real questions are:
- Why are some people&#039;s escalator much faster than others?
- Are too many people getting stuck at an income level and can&#039;t move up?
- Some of your elevator&#039;s speed is based on you and some on the economy.  
- Are there floors that are unreachable for certain people?
- In aggregate, what&#039;s the mobility of people to move up through the levels?

Liberals always want us to picture a static economy, where Person A starts at income level 1 and can never escape it.  That&#039;s probably the exception, not the rule.   A &quot;Median&quot; income level is meaningless if the values are skewed to far in either direction.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is another factor that I think people are missing.  Income levels are like floors in a huge mall.  Imagine that each person has their very own escalator in the mall.  When you begin your life (unless of course you come from money), you start at the ground floor and as you go through life you generally climb up.  Sometimes you get stuck at a floor for a while, sometimes something bad happens and the escalator drops you down but overall it climbs through your working life.  Now the real questions are:<br />
- Why are some people&#8217;s escalator much faster than others?<br />
- Are too many people getting stuck at an income level and can&#8217;t move up?<br />
- Some of your elevator&#8217;s speed is based on you and some on the economy.<br />
- Are there floors that are unreachable for certain people?<br />
- In aggregate, what&#8217;s the mobility of people to move up through the levels?</p>
<p>Liberals always want us to picture a static economy, where Person A starts at income level 1 and can never escape it.  That&#8217;s probably the exception, not the rule.   A &#8220;Median&#8221; income level is meaningless if the values are skewed to far in either direction.</p>
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		<title>By: John Dewey</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2012/07/30/the-numbers-racket/comment-page-1/#comment-61308</link>
		<dc:creator>John Dewey</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Aug 2012 11:22:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=7809#comment-61308</guid>
		<description>&lt;b&gt;Paul T: &quot;If women have been dropping the bridge club,
 in order to enter the work force, we have a
 massive DECREASE in leisure time&quot;&lt;/b&gt;

Paul, what I think has been happening - and it&#039;s been a gradual change since the 1940s - is that women are no longer working as housewives.  The work of housewives is unpaid, and thus not included in income and wage statistics. That unpaid, uncounted work has now moved into the paid sector.  That would include:

day care
food preparation
housecleaning (for some households)
lawn care

As these low-skilled tasks began to be included in income statistics, median wages and median income should have declined - if all else had remained the same.

A proper comparison between decades would have included the income of housewives ($0) in deriving the median statistics.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><b>Paul T: &#8220;If women have been dropping the bridge club,<br />
 in order to enter the work force, we have a<br />
 massive DECREASE in leisure time&#8221;</b></p>
<p>Paul, what I think has been happening &#8211; and it&#8217;s been a gradual change since the 1940s &#8211; is that women are no longer working as housewives.  The work of housewives is unpaid, and thus not included in income and wage statistics. That unpaid, uncounted work has now moved into the paid sector.  That would include:</p>
<p>day care<br />
food preparation<br />
housecleaning (for some households)<br />
lawn care</p>
<p>As these low-skilled tasks began to be included in income statistics, median wages and median income should have declined &#8211; if all else had remained the same.</p>
<p>A proper comparison between decades would have included the income of housewives ($0) in deriving the median statistics.</p>
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		<title>By: Brain Food &#8212; Laissez FaireLaissez Faire</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2012/07/30/the-numbers-racket/comment-page-1/#comment-61306</link>
		<dc:creator>Brain Food &#8212; Laissez FaireLaissez Faire</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Aug 2012 11:02:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=7809#comment-61306</guid>
		<description>[...] I’ve talked about the alleged stagnation of the middle class before, but Steve Landsburg’s take on this is unbelievably cool. He starts with a  paradox: Median wages for all workers have indeed been virtually stagnant since 1980, but median wages for every single demographic group have increased substantially during that time. How’s that possible? And what does it mean? Read on. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] I’ve talked about the alleged stagnation of the middle class before, but Steve Landsburg’s take on this is unbelievably cool. He starts with a  paradox: Median wages for all workers have indeed been virtually stagnant since 1980, but median wages for every single demographic group have increased substantially during that time. How’s that possible? And what does it mean? Read on. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Brian Donohue</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2012/07/30/the-numbers-racket/comment-page-1/#comment-61291</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian Donohue</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Aug 2012 02:36:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=7809#comment-61291</guid>
		<description>Good stuff. It seems to me that the age of the median worker would have increased between 1980 and 2005, which would, I think, offset the performance in your numbers somewhat.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Good stuff. It seems to me that the age of the median worker would have increased between 1980 and 2005, which would, I think, offset the performance in your numbers somewhat.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul T</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2012/07/30/the-numbers-racket/comment-page-1/#comment-61289</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul T</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Aug 2012 00:43:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=7809#comment-61289</guid>
		<description>SL:  &quot;That’s exactly what’s happened with median 
incomes. Each demographic group has progressed, but 
at the same time, there’s been a great influx of 
lower income groups — women... — into the workforce... 
One might also add that the table fails to account 
for the vast increases in leisure time over the past 
40 years&quot;
**********************************

?
If women have been dropping the bridge club, 
in order to enter the work force, we have a 
massive DECREASE in leisure time.

This brings to mind something I read - can&#039;t 
recall where - the commentator pointed out that 
longer work hours - commonly assumed to represent 
prosperity - are not an unalloyed blessing, as 
there&#039;s a cost in the loss of leisure time.   

And, some years ago, another economist examined 
this supposed gain.  He assumed $30/hr, standard 
work week, then did some estimates of the costs of 
transportation, wardrobe, child care, taxes, etc., 
and figured a woman is netting $8/hr.  This sugests 
irrationality on a large scale, which should be of 
interest to econmists.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>SL:  &#8220;That’s exactly what’s happened with median<br />
incomes. Each demographic group has progressed, but<br />
at the same time, there’s been a great influx of<br />
lower income groups — women&#8230; — into the workforce&#8230;<br />
One might also add that the table fails to account<br />
for the vast increases in leisure time over the past<br />
40 years&#8221;<br />
**********************************</p>
<p>?<br />
If women have been dropping the bridge club,<br />
in order to enter the work force, we have a<br />
massive DECREASE in leisure time.</p>
<p>This brings to mind something I read &#8211; can&#8217;t<br />
recall where &#8211; the commentator pointed out that<br />
longer work hours &#8211; commonly assumed to represent<br />
prosperity &#8211; are not an unalloyed blessing, as<br />
there&#8217;s a cost in the loss of leisure time.   </p>
<p>And, some years ago, another economist examined<br />
this supposed gain.  He assumed $30/hr, standard<br />
work week, then did some estimates of the costs of<br />
transportation, wardrobe, child care, taxes, etc.,<br />
and figured a woman is netting $8/hr.  This sugests<br />
irrationality on a large scale, which should be of<br />
interest to econmists.</p>
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		<title>By: John Dewey</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2012/07/30/the-numbers-racket/comment-page-1/#comment-61278</link>
		<dc:creator>John Dewey</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Aug 2012 18:23:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=7809#comment-61278</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Steve Landsburg: &quot;the table fails to account for the vast increases in leisure time over the past 40 years&quot;&lt;/i&gt;

Do you mean that full time workers are working less than they did in the 1970s?  Or that more Americans are working parttime?

I don&#039;t have access to the paper, but &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/04/who-has-more-leisure-time-high-or-low-income-earners/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Debbie Baritz reports on an NBER paper&lt;/A&gt;

&lt;i&gt;&quot;In the paper by Orazio Attanasio, Erik Hurst and Luigi Pistaferri called, “The Evolution of Income, Consumption, and Leisure Inequality in The US, 1980-2010,” evidence  showed that the higher-educated (and yes higher-earning) Americans spend more time working but less time on leisure activities than the poorer income groups, according to The Wall Street Journal.&quot;&lt;/i&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Steve Landsburg: &#8220;the table fails to account for the vast increases in leisure time over the past 40 years&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Do you mean that full time workers are working less than they did in the 1970s?  Or that more Americans are working parttime?</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t have access to the paper, but <a href="http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/04/who-has-more-leisure-time-high-or-low-income-earners/" rel="external">Debbie Baritz reports on an NBER paper</a></p>
<p><i>&#8220;In the paper by Orazio Attanasio, Erik Hurst and Luigi Pistaferri called, “The Evolution of Income, Consumption, and Leisure Inequality in The US, 1980-2010,” evidence  showed that the higher-educated (and yes higher-earning) Americans spend more time working but less time on leisure activities than the poorer income groups, according to The Wall Street Journal.&#8221;</i></p>
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		<title>By: John Dewey</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2012/07/30/the-numbers-racket/comment-page-1/#comment-61277</link>
		<dc:creator>John Dewey</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Aug 2012 18:07:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=7809#comment-61277</guid>
		<description>advo: &quot;That said, 15% over 25 years is pathetic – during that time, productivity increased by about 50%.&quot;

Did the productivity of the median worker increase 50%?  I doubt that. The productivity of the entire workforce may have increased 50%. But the technological advances of the past 30 years no doubt helped the highly skilled workers - the minority - much more than the more numerous lower skilled workers. For example, the productivity of my wife and the surgeons she works with increased tremendously since 1980 through the development of minimally invasive surgical techniques. But the productivity of the kitchen staff at her hospital probably changed very little.

Another point about productivity: why should we expect the gains from productivity to necessarily flow to labor? Fred Smith and other stockholders provided complex computerized sorting machinery to the FedEx hub in Memphis in the 1980s and 1990s. Should the benefits of the increased productivity at that hub flow to the unskilled workers at that hub? Or to the engineers who designed and maintained the system? Or to the providers of the capital?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>advo: &#8220;That said, 15% over 25 years is pathetic – during that time, productivity increased by about 50%.&#8221;</p>
<p>Did the productivity of the median worker increase 50%?  I doubt that. The productivity of the entire workforce may have increased 50%. But the technological advances of the past 30 years no doubt helped the highly skilled workers &#8211; the minority &#8211; much more than the more numerous lower skilled workers. For example, the productivity of my wife and the surgeons she works with increased tremendously since 1980 through the development of minimally invasive surgical techniques. But the productivity of the kitchen staff at her hospital probably changed very little.</p>
<p>Another point about productivity: why should we expect the gains from productivity to necessarily flow to labor? Fred Smith and other stockholders provided complex computerized sorting machinery to the FedEx hub in Memphis in the 1980s and 1990s. Should the benefits of the increased productivity at that hub flow to the unskilled workers at that hub? Or to the engineers who designed and maintained the system? Or to the providers of the capital?</p>
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		<title>By: Robert Schout</title>
		<link>http://www.thebigquestions.com/2012/07/30/the-numbers-racket/comment-page-1/#comment-61270</link>
		<dc:creator>Robert Schout</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Aug 2012 14:39:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thebigquestions.com/?p=7809#comment-61270</guid>
		<description>The numbers do no reflect what has happened to income distribution within the standard income ranges of the census data. The middle class started going away in the mid 1970s, and it did so after the invention of the birth control pill in the 1960s. Family size dropped, women increased in the work force, and two income families became the norm. This progressed to the point where income in the now smaller families declined, and the amount of money spent on shoppers goods- general merchandise, apparel and furniture- dropped as a per cent of total personal income. In the 1960s and the first half of the 1970s, the amount of personal income spent on shoppers goods dropped from about 14.5 per cent to a lower level, and reached about 11 per cent in most metro areas in the 1975 period. 
The logic of regional centers, is as follows: Shoppers goods sales are about 15 per cent of income, and each department store will capture 5 per cent of that. So Sears, J C Penny the main national anchors in this period, will then produce sales, which on average will be say 250 per foot of sell area. Then the mall shops will get on average 150 per cent of the average sales of each department store combined. So it helps, in this period to get that average up by adding fashion stores - Saks, Lord and Taylor, or Nordstrom, and then Dillards, in addition to having a strong regional store such as hudsons, fields, or dayton department stores. 
In the end, which was by 1985, department stores sales had dropped to about 100 per foot on average and rents in small shops in malls dropped lower, which meant that higher rents of the earlier era were hard to maintain, and the quality of small shops declined. There were several tricks tried by Sears and J C Penney execs, such as opening only stores with almost 100 per cent sell area, ( it was 50 50 sell and back of house in the 1960s and early 1970s) and other things. BUT the real problem was that a third of the market was really lost when the ratio of expenditure to personal income declined by 1/3rd. Now within the trade areas of each ( anchor department store) the share of market potential captured went from 5% of shoppers goods to 2.5 per cent by the 1990s and even less by 2000. 
THIS IS WHAT REALLY HAPPENED TO THE MIDDLE CLASS. THEY DIDNT GO AWAY. THEY NEVER ARRIVED.
You can fool around with all kinds of data but you cannot escape the data you derive from comparing income from census data, the BEA, for metro areas with retail sales data from the survey of retail trade for any metro area. This data, which was used by us to underwrite 60 million feet of retail space in malls, reveals that a certain per cent of the middle class went up to the 20 per cent of the households which in todays terms make more income - the broader upper class- and have a bigger share of total personal income. The rest of the people are doomed to be poor in all respects. Of course many of the people and families which moved up, in the recession saw everything change and they, of course, no longer have income and have fallen off the cliff. In the end, there will be a very big change for these people in the upper 20 per cent. Over time, the size of this group, versus all households, is headed to where it was before 1965- about 2 per cent of all households.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The numbers do no reflect what has happened to income distribution within the standard income ranges of the census data. The middle class started going away in the mid 1970s, and it did so after the invention of the birth control pill in the 1960s. Family size dropped, women increased in the work force, and two income families became the norm. This progressed to the point where income in the now smaller families declined, and the amount of money spent on shoppers goods- general merchandise, apparel and furniture- dropped as a per cent of total personal income. In the 1960s and the first half of the 1970s, the amount of personal income spent on shoppers goods dropped from about 14.5 per cent to a lower level, and reached about 11 per cent in most metro areas in the 1975 period.<br />
The logic of regional centers, is as follows: Shoppers goods sales are about 15 per cent of income, and each department store will capture 5 per cent of that. So Sears, J C Penny the main national anchors in this period, will then produce sales, which on average will be say 250 per foot of sell area. Then the mall shops will get on average 150 per cent of the average sales of each department store combined. So it helps, in this period to get that average up by adding fashion stores &#8211; Saks, Lord and Taylor, or Nordstrom, and then Dillards, in addition to having a strong regional store such as hudsons, fields, or dayton department stores.<br />
In the end, which was by 1985, department stores sales had dropped to about 100 per foot on average and rents in small shops in malls dropped lower, which meant that higher rents of the earlier era were hard to maintain, and the quality of small shops declined. There were several tricks tried by Sears and J C Penney execs, such as opening only stores with almost 100 per cent sell area, ( it was 50 50 sell and back of house in the 1960s and early 1970s) and other things. BUT the real problem was that a third of the market was really lost when the ratio of expenditure to personal income declined by 1/3rd. Now within the trade areas of each ( anchor department store) the share of market potential captured went from 5% of shoppers goods to 2.5 per cent by the 1990s and even less by 2000.<br />
THIS IS WHAT REALLY HAPPENED TO THE MIDDLE CLASS. THEY DIDNT GO AWAY. THEY NEVER ARRIVED.<br />
You can fool around with all kinds of data but you cannot escape the data you derive from comparing income from census data, the BEA, for metro areas with retail sales data from the survey of retail trade for any metro area. This data, which was used by us to underwrite 60 million feet of retail space in malls, reveals that a certain per cent of the middle class went up to the 20 per cent of the households which in todays terms make more income &#8211; the broader upper class- and have a bigger share of total personal income. The rest of the people are doomed to be poor in all respects. Of course many of the people and families which moved up, in the recession saw everything change and they, of course, no longer have income and have fallen off the cliff. In the end, there will be a very big change for these people in the upper 20 per cent. Over time, the size of this group, versus all households, is headed to where it was before 1965- about 2 per cent of all households.</p>
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