Monthly Archive for September, 2018

Can You Outsmart an Economist?

Can You Outsmart an Economist?

100+ Puzzles to Train Your Brain

My new book is now on sale! Readers of this blog will recognize some but not nearly all of these 100+ puzzles (146, actually, by my count). If you’ve enjoyed my puzzle posts, you’ll probably enjoy these extended discussions of some past puzzles, and the many more that are entirely new. Most of these puzzles are designed to teach important lessons about economics, broadly defined to encompass all purposeful human behavior. All of them are also designed to be fun.

Once you’ve had a look, please don’t hesitate to share your opinions right here on the blog — or better yet (especially if your opinions are positive!) don’t hesitate to share them on Amazon or on Goodreads.

Or, if you’d prefer to taste the milk before you buy the cow, here is the introduction, absolutely free of charge.

You can read a few advance reviews here. And remember, the more copies you buy, the sooner I’ll write the sequel.

Click here to comment or read others’ comments.

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Efficient Tariffs

You’re a policymaker in a country where people buy widgets that are produced both at home and abroad. You can set (separate) excise tax rates on domestic production and imports. (The tax on imports is, of course, what we usually call a tariff.) What tax rates should you set?

The Economics 101 answer makes two assumptions:

1. You care only about the economic welfare of your citizens (and not at all about foreigners).

2. You can’t affect foreign prices (i.e. your country is a negligible portion of the world market for widgets). The fancy way to say this is that the supply of imports is perfectly elastic.

From these assumptions, it follows that both tax rates should be zero. In fact, we can relax assumption 1) and allow you to care as much as you want about the welfare of foreigners; the conclusion doesn’t change.

But suppose we relax these assumptions in a different way:

1A. You care about both the economic welfare of your citizens and (separately) about the tax revenue earned by your government. (I continue to assume, however, that you don’t care about foreigners.)

2A. The foreign supply curve might not be perfectly elastic. Contrary to the Economics 101 assumption, this gives you some market power that you might want to exploit. (I continue to assume, though, that you take the foreign supply curve as given. In particular, this means that your policies do not affect foreign tax rates, so I am assuming away things like retaliatory tariffs.)

Now what’s your best policy? I can’t answer that because you have two competing goals (economic welfare and tax revenue) and I don’t know how much weight you put on one versus the other. But surely if I can show you that Policy A delivers on both goals better than Policy B, you’ll want to reject Policy B. The existence of Policy A leads me to call Policy B inefficient, and surely you’ll want to reject any inefficient policy.

So which pairs of tax rates are efficient?

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Kavanaugh v. Thomas

I keep hearing that the matter of Brett Kavanaugh is “just like Clarence Thomas and Anita Hill all over again”.

Seriously?

Point the First: Clarence Thomas stood accused of boorishness. Brett Kavanaugh stands accused of violent attempted rape. If all the accusations against Thomas were true, he deserved an elbow to the ribs. If the accusations against Kavanaugh are true, he should probably be in jail.

To suggest that there is even a rough equivalence here is sheer madness.

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Quick Thoughts on Kavanaugh

First: Neither you nor I know who’s telling the truth, who’s honestly misremembering, who’s dissembling, and who’s doing some combination of all three. But if we want to think about what should happen next in the real world, it pays to think first about what should happen next in a hypothetical world where we can somehow be sure that Professor Ford’s account is 100% accurate. In that world, we need to ask this question: Should a night of bad behavior at age 17 be punished by a career derailment at age 53 (assuming there’s been no punishment in the interim)?

The answer, of course, depends on the benefits and costs of that punishment.

First the benefits: Punishments are beneficial when they deter other bad behavior. So we should embrace this punishment only insofar as we believe that some future 17 year old boy will be deterred from committing sexual assualt by the prospect of a career derailment 35 years down the line. How big is that deterrent effect? Not only do I have no idea; I also have no idea how to start forming an idea. That is, I can’t think of any good empirical strategy for measuring such a deterrent effect. We have good data on the deterrent effect of imprisonment, of capital punishment, and of fines — but not, as far as I know, on the deterrent effect of long-delayed career consequences. (I’ll be very glad if any reader can prove me wrong about this.) I do, however, have a guess. My guess is that for boys of the social milieu that Kavanaugh came from, this effect could loom pretty large. True, no 17 year old really expects to be nominated to the Supreme Court some day, but plenty of 17 year olds at prep schools have lavish dreams of future success, and seem to care quite a bit about preserving that future. If my guess is right, the benefits of killing this nomination might be pretty big.

Continue reading ‘Quick Thoughts on Kavanaugh’

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