Archive for the 'Roundup' Category

Weekend Roundup

roundupIf there’s one thing I wish everybody understood about economics, it’s that wise resource allocation requires truly vast amounts of information, and that prices do an excellent job of summarizing that information. We led off the week by applying this principle to grocery shopping. A rather silly column in the New York Times had seemed to suggest that socially responsible shoppers should care about the energy costs of producing vegetables to the exclusion of all the other costs. The column was focusing, in other words, on the seen as opposed to the unseen. But the unseen costs of growing a tomato in one location rather than another are just as important as the obvious ones, and because they are unseen (and unseeable) the only feasible way to account for them is to look at prices. We followed up with a 25 year old application of exactly the same principle, this time to the problem of resource extraction.

We moved on to the perils of interpreting data, in this case with regard to the ingredients of a happy marriage. Then a look back to what the world of 1985 thought would constitue a marvelous future; we seem to have met expectations pretty well. And finally, we came in a sense full circle — from lamenting those focus single-mindedly on energy costs to the exclusion of all else to lamenting those who fault others for failing to focus single-mindedly on one political issue to the exclusion of all others.

I’ll be back next week with some thoughts on why we should care about economic efficiency, a little more on the foundations of arithmetic, and some surprises.

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Weekend Roundup

roundupIt was a week of mathematics here at The Big Questions. I am still reeling from the momentous events that inspired Monday’s post; we now know that the Internet has changed mathematics forever. On Friday, we celebrated the momentous achievenments of the new Fields Medalists.

In between, we began what will be an occasional series on the foundations of arithmetic. In Part I, we distinguished truth from provability. In Part II, we distinguished theories (that is, systems of axioms) from models (that is, the mathematical structures that the theories are intended to describe). A theory is a map; a model is the territory. In Part III we talked about consistency and stressed that it applies only to theories, not to models. A purported map of Nebraska can be inconsistent; Nebraska itself can’t be.

It turns out (a little surprisingly) that any consistent map must describe multiple territories. (That is, any consistent set of axioms must describe many mathematical structures — or in other words, any consistent theory must have many models.) (This assumes the map has enough detail to let us talk about addition and multiplication.) These territories—i.e. these mathematical structures, all look very different, even though they all conform to the map. Conclusion: No map can fully describe the territory. No set of axioms can fully describe the natural numbers.

I’ll continue this series sporadically, and eventually we’ll get into some controversial philosophical questions. So far we haven’t.

Speaking of controversy, I’ve increased the default font size for this blog. Tell me if you like it.

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Weekend Roundup

More posts than usual this week as I was motivated twice to add a mid-day post to my usual morning fare. As a result, I’m afraid Jeff Poggi’s remarkable sonnet to Darwin got less attention than it should have; I hope you’ll go back, read it, and spot the hidden Darwin references.

The mid-day posts were motivated by a pair of (in my opinion, of course) outrages — first Paul Krugman’s suggestion that if we control for education and a few other demographic factors, we can make a meaningful comparison of private and public sector wages, ignoring all the ways in which public and private sector jobs differ. (And ignoring, too, all the ways in which one college degree might differ from another.) I suggested that a better metric is the quit rate in each sector; some commenters rightfully pointed out that that’s also an insufficient statistic. I bet it still comes a lot closer than Krugman’s attempt, though.

The second outrage was the Administration’s willingness to act as the equivalent of a Mafia enforcer for firms who prefer not to compete with foreign labor. Some commenters asked how this differed from any other case of the American government enforcing American laws while asking the beneficiaries to contribute to the costs. That’s easy. This law, unlike, say, the laws against murder, has as its primary purpose the restraint of trade (as opposed to oh, say, the general welfare).

We talked about how to estimate the peak of the Laffer curve (answer—it’s at about the 70% marginal tax rate, though I indicated some reasons why it might be somewhat leftward of that), mused about the value of a good CEO, and gave new meaning to the phrase phone sex when we reported on the fact that iPhone users have many more lifetime sex partners than Android users.

Incidentally, those readers who thought the flashy iPhone pays off in the mating market can’t be right (or at least can’t have hit on the key story), because the effect holds even for 40 year olds, who surely did not acquire their iPhones until long after they’d acquired most of their sex partners.

And we noted in passing the announcement of a proof that P does not equal NP (where you can look here for a very rough idea of what this means). Over the course of the week, this developed into a story of, I think, monumental significance, which I will surely revisit early next week. See you then.

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Weekend Roundup

roundupWe led off the week with a diversion that might have been premature in the sense that I can do more tricks now than I could then, and a bit more gracefully too, I think. More video when I feel ready to graduate to actual fire.

Next a post on the different kinds of logic, and a related post on what it all means.

Sadly, the latter continued to draw comments from readers who want to “define the natural numbers via axioms”, whereas the whole point of these posts is that nothing of the sort is possible.

On Thursday I took issue with Robin Hanson’s take on polygamy; Robin responds here.

And on Friday I pointed to an unconventional high school valedictory speech.

Note to RSS readers: Friday’s “high school” post was originally scheduled for Thursday. But when I read Robin’s polygamy post on Wednesday night, I wanted to respond to it, so I scheduled that post for Thursday and rescheduled the high school post for Friday. For some reason the rescheduling didn’t take, so that the high school post was briefly posted Thursday morning before I realized what had happened and took it down. By then, though, the RSS feeds had it. So that’s why many of you saw the same post two days in a row.

Back on Monday of course.

Click here to comment or read others’ comments.

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Weekend Roundup

roundup2Before we get to the roundup, here’s the latest chapter in the ongoing intellectual suicide of Paul Krugman:

  • Economists Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff write a scholarly paper purporting to show that high levels of government debt lead to slow economic growth. For the record, I have not read this paper.
  • Krugman, while praising the authors’ previous work, asserts that this time, there’s no there there. Specifically, he says that most of the Reinhart-Rogoff evidence comes from four episodes. According to Krugman, none of these four episodes counts. One could certainly well imagine a reasoned argument along these lines.
  • Krugman’s, however, is not that reasoned argument. Here is how he dismisses the episode labeled “Canada in the 90s”:

advocates of austerity have been using Canada in the mid-90s as an example of a success story; surely they can’t have it both ways.

The problem, of course, is that there is no “they” who are trying to have it both ways. Reinhart and Rogoff have made an argument about Canada in the 90’s. That argument stands or falls on its own. It is no refutation to observe that somebody else might have made some other (correct or incorrect) argument about Canada in the 90’s.

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Weekend Roundup

Somehow we’ve gone a month since the last weekend roundup. So this will reach back a little further than usual in time.

Riddles. We tackled some riddles: Why do guys with deep pockets take on risky ventures instead of selling them off to someone with nothing to lose? Why, when a plane headed for Atlanta is diverted to Greenville, does everyone else choose to stand for an hour at the ticket counter while I (and only I) saunter over to the Hertz counter and grab one of many available cars? And why does Jet Blue, after investing $800 million in its new terminal at JFK, choose to make that terminal so hellish a place that I for one will never travel through it again if I can possibly avoid it?

Paul Krugman. Yes, I know, I can’t seem to let this topic go. I was at it here, and then here, and here and finally here.

Let me summarize my complaint in a paragraph: Krugman has some policies he’d like to see enacted. Some people oppose those policies for silly reasons and others oppose them for sensible reasons. Krugman habitually ridicules the silly reasons and pretends that he has therefore dispensed with the sensible reasons.

More specifically, Krugman attacks “deficit hawks” but ignores the “spending hawks” who present a much stronger case for fiscal restraint. He’s right to attack the deficit hawks, who make the silly mistake of conflating spending (which is costly) with tax cuts (which are not)—but then he makes the same mistake himself when it suits his purposes.

Incidentally, my Toy Stories post contains a link to a toy model intended to highlight the key questions that Krugman willfully ignores. At the end of that post I added an addendum confessing to arithmetic errors in the model and inviting readers to correct them. On a second reading, I realized there are no arithmetic errors—just one typo in an equation. Because some comments refer to that typo, I’ve chosen not to correct it, but it’s explained in the current addendum to the original post.

Books. Our book posts covered everything from the ridiculous to the sublime to the magnificent.

Math. The music of the primes gives a glimpse of the glorious intricacy of arithmetic, and our post on Fermat’s Last Theorem gives a small taste of how to tackle a particularly vexing problem.

Videos We had videos on cruel and unusual punishment, on the end of racism, and on how to fix everything.

Miscellaneous. Can Mike Huckabee possibly believe the things he says about religion? Does anyone still subscribe to the superstition of dollar cost averaging? And why the disproportionate outrage about an oil spill in the Gulf when there’s so much more to be outraged about?

Okay, we’re more or less caught up now! See you Monday.

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Weekend Roundup

roundup2The reason we have journalists is to direct our attention to both That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen. The New York Times fell down on the job last week when it came to proposed regulation of the nanny market, by showing us That Which Is Seen by the New York Times while overlooking not only That Which Is Unseen but even That Which Is Seen By Everybody Without Blinders On. On Monday, we did our bit to pull the blinders off.

On Wednesday we contemplated the prospect of Betelgeuse going supernova, and asked this question: If an explosion happens, by how much will various earthbound observers disagree about its timing? Answer: If the explosion becomes visible just as you’re standing on a streetcorner while a driver runs over your toe, heading in the direction of Betelgeuse at 70 miles per hour, then you’ll say it took place 600 years ago whereas the driver will say it took place 600 years plus half an hour ago. A small amount in the scheme of things, but here at The Big Questions, we worry about the details.

(The geometry is here. To forestall confusion, the steeper red line is not the driver’s worldline; it is parallel to the driver’s worldline. His worldline crosses the vertical axis at the time when light from the explosion arrives, about 600 years above the illustrated line.)

On Thursday, we lamented the politicization of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, which, as our commenter Uncle Maury observed, began under the first President Bush, but has been carried to new depths by the current administration. It is sad indeed that Council Chair Christy Romer allowed herself to be dragged into this muck.

And on Tuesday and Friday, we had a little light refereshment.

I’ll see you next week.

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Weekend Roundup

I jumped the gun on Tuesday, celebrating Frederic Bastiat’s birthday about a month early. Fortunately, our commenter Cloudesly Shovell saved me from embarrassment by noting that Bastiat is well worth an entire month of celebration.

On Wednesday, we had some biting words about math education from my colleague Ralph Raimi, whose web page I continue to recommend for amusement and edification.

And on Thursday and Friday, we took on current events, lamenting the President’s misleading suggestion that tax increases can be a cure, or even a palliative, for excessive spending, and lamenting the general lack of perspective that leads to more gnashing of teeth over a $10 billion oil spill than a $300 deadweight loss due to taxation.

Several commentators noted that with this last post, we’d come full circle right back to Bastiat, author of timeless That Which is Seen and That Which is Not Seen. In the words of commenter Seth, “A duck caked in oil is seen. The deadweight loss is unseen.” (ScottN and others made the same point.) Yes, that’s probably the explanation. How sad that after 200 years, Bastiat’s lesson (that the unseen is as important as the seen) has yet to sink in.

See you Monday.

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Weekend Roundup

Following three (count ‘em: one, two, three) spirited discussions of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, one exploration of the perils of absentminded driving, and a snarky observation about the state of psychiatry, I am taking a long holiday weekend. I’ll return on Tuesday.

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Weekend Roundup

I am amazed and delighted by the many excellent responses to my call for arguments about religion. These will be very helpful to me as I prepare for my debate with Dinesh D’Souza. Keep them coming!

Commenters also had a lot to say about the puzzle of the absent-minded driver. It seems to me that some of the analyses falter by being less than crystal clear about their assumptions: How much can the driver remember (e.g., if he updates his strategy at the first intersection and then arrives at the second, does he remember his original strategy or his updated strategy?), how much he can commit to (e.g. if he updates his strategy at the first intersection, can he commit to sticking to the new strategy at the second? can he commit to the method of updating he’ll use at the second?), how much he can anticipate (e.g. what does he believe about his future updates?), how smart he is (can he use his knowledge of his current strategy to figure out whether he’s already updated and hence what intersection he’s at?) and how sneaky he is (e.g. might he purposely adopt a bad strategy in order to trick his future self into updating to a good one?). I have what I think is a useful way of forcing puzzlers to be explicit about their assumptions, and had planned to post it on Monday, but I keep revising it, so it might be a few more days.

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Weekend Roundup

roundup2We began the week with another triumph of capitalism, then moved on to a deep unsolved problem in arithmetic—which you, the reader, have an opportunity to help solve. On Thursday, we were honored with a guest post from the provocative Sup Specie Aeternitatis, offering evidence as to the sincerity of Al Gore’s proclaimed beliefs on global warming. We ended with a neat trick for weeding out job applicants.

I’ll be on the road this weekend so I’m taking Monday off. See you Tuesday!

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Weekend Roundup

roundup4On Monday, we talked about what women want (hint: they prefer larger, and we’re not talking about wallets).

On Tuesday, we talked about beautiful folk songs; thanks to those who pointed me in new directions.

On Wednesday, we asked why job growth has been so sluggish compared to previous recessions.

On Thursday, I linked to a remarkably thoughtful and literate Fox News clip on immigration policy, featuring the fiery Don Boudreaux.

And on Friday, we lamented the economic illiteracy of local television reporters.

I’ll be back on Monday with more.

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Weekend Roundup

roundupHaving taken Monday off for the briefest of honeymoons, I returned on Tuesday with an apparently too-cryptic post that required an addendum to make its meaning clear. Thanks to everyone who sent good wishes and congratulations. I am feeling extremely fortunate.

When I announced last week that I’d be taking a couple of days off, readers took the occasion to raise some issues in the foundations of mathematics. This inspired me to write a long-intended post correcting some elementary errors that frequently come up in these discussions. At least one very confused and feisty commenter jumped to the conclusion that I was saying something controversial and that is was his duty to disagree, loudly and repeatedly.

Thursday’s post was about the magic of the past and the technology of the present, which seem roughly equivalent. And on Friday we took on Arizona’s new immigration law and one of its more fatuous defenders.

With no life-changing events scheduled for the coming weekend, I expect to be back, as usual, on Monday.

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Weekend Roundup

The bulk of the week was devoted to Krugman on green economics, with posts here, here, and here.

Although I agreed with Krugman on some points and disagreed on others, there were two places where I not only disagreed but thought he had the economics wrong. First, he is wrong when he suggests that if we’re more risk averse, it follows that we should spend more on climate control. The reason is that risk averse people don’t like income inequality (because it boosts the risk of being born poor), and spending more on climate control exacerbates income inequality across generations. Therefore risk aversion cuts both ways on this issue. Second, Krugman is wrong when he gives (some) credence to James Hansen’s economically illiterate belief that altruism is somehow less effective under a cap-and-trade regime than under an emissions tax.

To round out the week, we had two posts about shameless hucksters trying to gull the public. Those posts are here and here.

As always, I’ll be back on Monday.

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Weekend Roundup

We had lots of new readers this week after several posts got considerable attention around the blogosphere: One on the difference between what the economist says and what the non-economist hears, one on blogging and the future of math (with its companion piece on four-dimensional tic-tac-toe), and two posts from the preceding week: My most influential books list and a post on what’s wrong with happiness research.

Bookending the week were my discovery of myself as a character in a novel and an extraordinary triumph of capitalism.

I look forward to seeing our new and old readers again on Monday.

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Weekend Roundup

This week’s highlights:

Weekend Roundup

The Big Questions of the week were:

I’ll let you ponder these further over the weekend and I’ll be back Monday with more.

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Weekend Roundup

A sudden and mysterious fever left me unable to post my usual weekend roundup on time today. Now that I’m feeling human again, here it is, a few hours late:

We started the week with my best attempt to explain the intuition underlying the spectacular formula e = -1, frequently described as the most beautiful and astonishing equation in all of mathematics. Gauss reportedly once said that if this formula is not immediately obvious to you, you have no hope of being a mathematician—but I’ve heard more than one Fields Medalist say he’d been dumbstruck when he first encountered it.

We reviewed Yale professor Gary Gorton’s account of the financial crisis; he says it was a bank run, and if you’re going to have banks, bank runs go with the territory.

On the lighter side, we talked about web comics; on the less-light side we talked about the advantages of genocide over other forms of mass murder, and about moral paradoxes.

Barring a relapse, I’ll see you Monday.

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Weekend Roundup

Here at The Big Questions, we try to stand up for clear thinking and shame its enemies. This week, the enemies included Paul Krugman (writing on unemployment), the President of the United States (expounding on rising insurance premiums), a Washington Post columnist who seemed to forget that political reforms are supposed to serve a purpose, and that perpetual offender, the Conventional Wisdom, in its judgments about anti-gay agendas and fiscal responsibility.

Unless Krugman or someone like him offers an irresistible target tomorrow, I’ll see you next on Monday. Thanks for visiting.

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Weekend Roundup

We started the week with a pointer to a hilarious recipe for salted water. If you didn’t follow the link then, you should follow it now. Click on the “reviews” tab and don’t be drinking anything when you read through these.

On Tuesday I made some snarky and cynical comments about the effects of health care reform on government spending. Fortunately, nobody at the Congressional Budget Office sued me for libel. Professor Joseph Weiler was not so lucky; when he posted a negative book review on a web site he edits, he was charged with criminal libel in France. Thursday’s post reviewed the astonishing story and Friday’s followed up with an account of the most devastating book review I know of (though commenters offered some good alternatives).

We paused midweek to acknowledge the birthday of Georg Cantor, and to summarize how he taught the world to think about infinity.

Next week: Commentary on health insurance premium hikes and much much more. Come back on Monday!

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Cognitive Dissonance

We will continue to go through the budget, line by line, page by page, to eliminate programs that we can’t afford and don’t work.

—President Barack Obama, January 27, 2010

The National Endowment for the Arts and the National Endowment for the Humanities…play a vital role in preserving and enhancing America’s cultural legacy.

—President Barack Obama, February 26, 2010
after requesting increased funding for both agencies

With that out of the way, let me proceed to our traditional weekend roundup. I was extremely pleased this week to have our first guest post from the distinguished philosopher Jamie Whyte. I’ve been a great admirer of Jamie’s writings since I discovered them a few months ago, and I thought his contribution here—on a radical proposal to improve democracy—was fabulous.

We had two other lively discussions this week, one on why Olympians are like Ponzi schemers (with a followup post a few days later) and one on the fiscal stimulus package on the occasion of its one-year anniversary.

Come back Monday for more!

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Weekend Roundup

I’ve long wanted to blog about the astonishing mathematics of Alexandre Grothendieck, who was surely the greatest mathematician of the 20th century and arguably the greatest of all time. This week, I had occasion to blog not about the mathematics per se (I’m still figuring out how to do that in a readable way) but about the remarkable letter from Grothendieck that surfaced last month, and the intellectual property issues that it raises.

Having started the week with one remarkable letter, we ended it with another, this one from Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia on the issue of secession.

In between, I asked readers to enlighten me about some stuff I just don’t get, we saw new evidence that people are less religious than they say they are, and we used a study on beauty and daughters to illustrate how statistics can deceive.

I’ll return on Monday, probably with a few more thoughts on secession. Have a good weekend!

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Weekend Roundup

This week we had an explanation of why there is magnetism, a discussion on how to teach math, a debate on child labor and a followup thereto, and a half-hearted defense of Abraham Lincoln—the sort of eclectic mix that you’ll find in The Big Questions. Have you bought your copy yet?

More on Monday!

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Weekend Roundup

It was a week of madness. We started with a post on hysteria about debt and deficits, visited Michael Pacanowsky’s classic investigation of whether the utterance “Please Pass the Salt” can cause salt to travel, and dredged up an old proposal to reduce carbon emissions by making everyone wear a device that plugs up one nostril—segueing from the latter into an even crazier proposal from this week’s Washington Post. We rounded out the week with some educational madness, which gave me a chance to plug the brilliant writing of Caitlin Flanagan.

Note: Wednesday’s blogpost currently links to just the first page of Pacanowsky’s article; in the next few days I hope to have permission from the copyright owner to link to the entire thing.

On a less mad note, there’s an economic principle that says it’s best for everything to be taxed equally; paradoxically (until you understand it) this means that capital income should be taxed not at all. Last week, we saw that this is because a tax on capital income implicitly taxes current and future consumption at different rates; on Tuesday of this week, we saw that it’s also because a tax on capital income implicitly taxes current and future labor at different rates.

Next week: More madness, more sanity, more economics, and probably some math and some physics as well. See you then.

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Weekend Roundup

Last weekend’s roundup triggered some lively back-and-forth regarding the Supreme Court and freedom of speech. Wednesday night’s Obama/Alito showdown was old hat to readers of The Big Questions, who had already been on top of this issue for a full four days.

With the start of the week proper, we had two more lively discussions, over relativity theory and capital taxation; never let it be said that this blog is narrowly focused. We also had a report on my collection of really bad animal books, and we saw pictures of a watermelon car.

Upcoming next week: A recap of the relativity controversy, a few words on how to think (and how not to think) about the national debt, and much more. See you Monday!

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Weekend Roundup

Still reeling from the revelation that four Supreme Court Justices have withdrawn their support for the First Amendment to the United States Constitution, I am pulling myself together to bring you this week’s blog roundup. Or actually two weeks’ worth of blog roundup, since I skipped last week’s due to travel.

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Weekend Roundup

We led off the week with two posts about unwarranted beliefs—my own unwarranted belief in the power of bathtub hardware and Moody’s economist Mark Zandi’s unwarranted belief in the power of fiscal stimulus.

The rest of the week was devoted to my gallery of heroes, with followup discussions here and here.

Along the way, there were many provocative suggestions for additions to the gallery, of which some struck me as fully worthy, some struck me as implausible, and some I’d never heard of. Below, without commentary, is the full list of suggested additions, with the suggesters names in parentheses; apologies if I overlooked a few. The name most frequently mentioned was Richard Feynman; my mom cast an extra vote for Feynman by email.

I’ll be back, of course, on Monday.

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Weekend Roundup

It was another abbreviated week due to holidays, but we still had time for our first video post, a celebration of Ronald Coase’s 99th birthday (and a summary of the ideas behind his well-deserved Nobel prize), and a bit of silliness before capping off the week (and the year) with a survey of 2009’s Top Ten posts here at the Big Questions blog.

Today I am off to the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in Atlanta, Georgia. As usual, I’m taking Sunday off, but I’ll be back here Monday, blogging from Atlanta.

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Weekend Roundup

Like most blogs, we slowed down a little for the holidays and had a bit less content than usual—but we still managed to fit in a Christmas story, a cute puzzle, and the long-delayed solutions to my remaining honors problems.

Speaking of puzzles, I seem to have puzzled a substantial fraction of my readership with the subtlety of my sly Santa Claus reference. (I know this from my email.) Given the astute nature of this community, I am forced to infer that the fault is mine.

More holidays next week, and hence more days off, but I won’t disappear completely. Check back on Monday!

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Weekend Roundup

In a week when we took on the issues of health care and immigration, our most contentious issue turned out to be the complexity of arithmetic. We also touched on some odd Christmas gifts and the solutions to some old puzzles.

I’ll be back, of course, on Monday. But to tide you over the weekend, you might want to check out the interview with John Allison, the former CEO of BB&T, which is part of the “What Went Wrong” series over at BigThink. Needless to say, I can find parts to disagree with, but overall I think it’s one of the most insightful interviews yet in this series. A choice quote:

If you want to really think about what happened in the housing crises, it was a government policy, through Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and affordable housing policies, what they call the community reinvestment act, etc., that created a massive misallocation of credit. If the government gets into allocating credit over time it will make sure we aren’t as productive as we should be. So the government regulations usually in the end look like credit allocations usually to those that are politically favored at the expense of making sure credit is allocated to the most productive segments in the economy. So I think government regulation in the long term is almost always destructive.

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