A murder has been committed. The suspects are:
- Bob, a male smoker.
- Carol, a female smoker.
- Ted, another male smoker.
- Alice, a female non-smoker.
You are quite sure that one (and only one) of these suspects is the culprit. Moreover, after carefully examining the evidence, you’ve concluded that the odds are 2-to-1 that the culprit is a smoker.
Now your crack investigative team, in which you have total confidence, reports that, on the basis of new evidence, they’ve determined that the culprit is definitely female.
Who’s the most likely culprit, and with what probability?