Archive for the 'Personal' Category

Commencement in the Time of Covid

I had the honor of giving the commencement address to this year’s graduating economics majors at the University of Rochester, under circumstances that were trying in several ways.

First, I learned at 10:10 PM on Friday that I was giving this talk on Saturday morning. (It’s a long story. All the communication failures leading up to this were entirely my own fault.) I got to bed rather late that night.

Second, it was so ungodly hot that I chose to shed my cap and gown.

Third, there were, I think, only about 80 students present, spread evenly around a 967 seat auditorium (family and other guests were not allowed). Laughter and applause were therefore pretty sparse (though I suppose they might have been sparse for other reasons) and even what little could be heard was mostly not picked up by the microphones.

Other than that, I thought it was a good day. Those who have seen my 2017 commencement talk will recognize roughly the first quarter and the last tenth of this one, which I recycled. The intervening 65% or so is new.

Or click here.

Click here to comment or read others’ comments.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Is There a Way to Stop Paypal from Stealing?

I’ve been a quite satisfied customer of Paypal almost since the very beginning, but I am now a mightily annoyed and frustrated customer and I wonder if anyone has any advice on how to deal with this:

1) I see a charge to my Paypal account for $35.63, with the payee listed as “Google — Automatic Payment”. Looking back, I see there was an identical charge (which I had overlooked) a month earlier.

2) I disputed the charge with Paypal. 24 hours later, I was informed that the transaction was authorized and the case is closed.

3) Google denies any knowledge of this. They claim that the last time they authorized any sort of automatic payment from me to them was in May, 2020 and the amount was $4.29. Edited to add: When I go to Paypal and look under “automated payments” and then click on Google, it shows that the last automated payment to Google was in fact this $4.29. The repeated $35.63 payments do not show up.

4) When I try calling Paypal, I tell the automated phone system that I’m calling to dispute a transaction. They ask me which transaction, I tell them, the voice says that’s already resolved, and they hang up on me.

5) When I try calling Paypal back and respond to all queries about why I’m calling with the word “agent”, the voice says that to speak to an agent, I must call back during normal business hours. But I’m *already* calling during normal business hours.

6) When I use the chat function on Paypal’s webpage, I get the same responses I get from the phone system.

Question 1:

How the hell do I get Paypal to talk to me? Failing that, how the hell do I get Google to inform Paypal that they did not authorize this charge? (Google appears to be completely unreachable by phone.)

Question 2:

It looks like the only way to stop this from happening every month is to close my Paypal account. Will it then be safe to open a new Paypal account, or will they just transfer the charges to the new account?

Help!

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Is American Airlines too Reckless?

aa

My return trip from Lubbock to Rochester took almost 36 hours, due to maintenance issues on three separate aircraft. This leads me to wonder whether American Airlines is erring too far in the direction of safety and too little in the direction of getting people where they want to go — perhaps even recklessly so.

Here’s what the back of my envelope shows:

Continue reading ‘Is American Airlines too Reckless?’

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Where I’ll Be

This Monday (October 15), I’ll be in at Webber International University in Babson Park, Florida, talking on the subject “What Do the Rich Owe to the Poor?”. The talk is at 7pm in the Yentes Conference Center. Please join us if you’re in the area!

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Errata

Somewhere on my shelves, there is a math book with a page very like the following:

I know this because I remember seeing it (or at least I think I do), but I can’t quite remember which book it’s in.

Fortunately, I didn’t try to steal this joke for Can You Outsmart an Economist?, because it turns out there’s an actual erratum in the main text. It comes in Chapter 16 where a series of problems leads the reader to discover the basics of option pricing. The arithmetic in those problems is all correct, except for one thing: In order to keep the math easy, I assumed an interest rate of 50%. But with an interest rate that high (and given the other assumptions in the chapter), nobody would be mucking around with buying options in the first place; we’d all just be putting our money in the bank and getting rich in a hurry.

So what I should have done is assumed an interest rate of 20%. If you’ve got a copy of the book, you should pencil in the following changes:

Continue reading ‘Errata

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Can You Outsmart an Economist?

Can You Outsmart an Economist?

100+ Puzzles to Train Your Brain

My new book is now on sale! Readers of this blog will recognize some but not nearly all of these 100+ puzzles (146, actually, by my count). If you’ve enjoyed my puzzle posts, you’ll probably enjoy these extended discussions of some past puzzles, and the many more that are entirely new. Most of these puzzles are designed to teach important lessons about economics, broadly defined to encompass all purposeful human behavior. All of them are also designed to be fun.

Once you’ve had a look, please don’t hesitate to share your opinions right here on the blog — or better yet (especially if your opinions are positive!) don’t hesitate to share them on Amazon or on Goodreads.

Or, if you’d prefer to taste the milk before you buy the cow, here is the introduction, absolutely free of charge.

You can read a few advance reviews here. And remember, the more copies you buy, the sooner I’ll write the sequel.

Click here to comment or read others’ comments.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Public Service Announcement

Having recently dealt with some of the same customer service issues at both Vanguard and Fidelity, I can make these recommendations with confidence:

1) Keep your money at Vanguard.

2) If you’ve made the unfortunate mistake of keeping some of your money at Fidelity and you ever need customer service, and if your customer service representative turns out to be named Cameron Marcil, hang up immediately and try again.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Letter from an Infantryman

armydad

I found this among my father’s papers. He wrote it as a 20-year old infantryman who had been in combat for about six months.

I am struck by the eloquence, and doubly struck that he managed to be eloquent in the medium of pen-and-ink, with no copy/paste/delete and not even any crossouts:

Monday, Jan. 8 (1945)

Dear Mother and Dad:

Well, the new year has arrived and with it, sadly enough, have come no great changes. The war is still being fought, I and millions of other boys are still several thousands of miles away from home and our loved ones, and it almost seems as if there will never be an end to this useless, heart-breaking, killing war.

Whether a man is German, American, or French, he looks just the same when he is wounded, dying or dead. The battlefield bullet is a great leveler; it can make the biggest man very small or the weakest man a hero, but in this war most of the heroes are dead.

We who are actively engaged in defeating the enemy would not hesitate to lay down our arms and surrender if we thought that the people who make the peace will fail to make it permanent. The mere thought that our comrades may have died for nothing, that we may have a brief pause from this war so that we can raise sons to fight another war would cause us many sleepless nights. The last thing one dying soldier said to me was that he was dying on the battlefield so that his son would not.

I may sound very bitter and full of resentment and frankly I am. This war should have been averted in 1918 and the ensuing years, but instead of preventing war, the American people actually encouraged it by ignoring everything that was going on around them. For the sake of all the men who have gone through this hell, we must not let this happen again. We must not have allowed so many of our boys to have died in vain.

I can’t possibly express the resentment these boys feel when they hear about these “Victory in Europe Celebrations”, and when they hear about the lotteries that are held to determine the date of the European victory. Here their own sons are being killed, maimed and crippled for life, and they trouble themselves with such trivial tripe. What is the matter with the American public? Is it entirely aloof to this war?

Perhaps I don’t sound like a twenty-year-old kid anymore, but I’ve seen things that I shall never forget, ghastly things that I shudder to think about. I think that a just punishment for any of these “Victory in Europe Celebration” planners would be to pick up a soldier’s boot on a battlefield and find the foot still in it, or sweat out just one artillery barrage. If they could just realize what is going on they would spend all their spare time praying for the safety of their boys and thanking God that America has been spared everything but an army.

Aside from being a little angry, I’m feeling fine. I’ve received several of your packages and everything is swell. I know that God has been answering your prayers, and he will continue to watch over me.

Love, Norman

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

End of an Era

dad2
Norman Landsburg (1924-2018), a survivor of the worst ravages of the Great Depression, a survivor of the trenches in France, where he landed in the wake of the Normandy invasion (and, according to what I think I’ve just learned while going through his papers, was awarded two bronze stars that he never once mentioned to his wife of 68 years or any of his three children), who transcended a series of hard knocks that would have led many to despair and struggled every day, often against mighty odds, to make a better life for his family, succumbed tonight to complications from Alzheimer’s disease.

His bullheadedness was his greatest vice and his greatest virtue. I owe him a couple of good slaps upside the head (not that I ever got one from him, but he deserves them anyway) and eternal gratitude for the way he eased my setting forth and filled my world with possibilities. Neither debt will ever be paid.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Where I’ll Be

I’ll be speaking this Saturday at the Freethought Festival in Madison, Wisconsin (follow the link to register!) on the topic “Truth, Provability and the Fabric of the Universe”. I’ll be glad to see you there.

Click here to comment or read others’ comments.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Like the Groundhog, He Emerges

Regular readers of this blog will have noticed by now that my blogging has been mostly dormant for a while. This is partly because I’ve been working on multiple book projects (e.g. this one), partly because I felt so disillusioned after the outcome of the election season, and partly because I’ve felt like I’ve already said much of what I have to say. But sometimes you can’t resist.

This is the City Mattress store on Monroe Avenue in Brighton, New York:

My wife recently wanted to buy a mattress, drove by the store, and noticed that there were no hours posted in the window. The next day, she guessed at the opening time, happened to get it right, went into the store, and mentioned to the friendly manager that it would be nice if they could post their hours. The manager agreed that being able to post their hours would be very nice indeed, but that the town of Brighton had forbidden them to do so on the grounds that it would “make the store look like a sub shop”.

Question 1: Please study the picture above. How probable do you think it is that you’d mistake it for a sub shop? (Your answer should be a number between 0% and 100%).

Question 1A: By how much would your answer to Question 1 change if this store had its hours posted in the window?

Question 2: If you did happen to mistake this store for a sub shop, how much damage would you feel you’d incurred? (Your answer should be the number of dollars you’d have to lose to feel equivalently damaged.)

Incidentally, the lack of an hours sign inconveniences not only people like my wife, who wasn’t sure when to show up. The manager mentioned that every night at closing time, they have to turn away new arrivals who, due to the lack of a sign, were unaware of the store hours.

The Brighton Town Supervisor is Mr. William Moehle. This is a picture of his house:

Continue reading ‘Like the Groundhog, He Emerges’

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Help!

Readers: I need your help!

More than once, my blog readers have proved themselves to be cleverer, smarter and more insightful than I am about a great many things. I need your cleverness, intelligence and insight now more than ever.

Yesterday, I delivered a manuscript to my editor at Houghton-Mifflin. Sometime in 2018, this manuscript will become a book. What it needs is a title!

The book is a compendium of puzzles and brain teasers designed to teach lessons about economics, statistical inference, and related matters. A recurring theme is that what’s “obvious” is often wrong. Here is a brief excerpt from the introduction.

The title should be catchy, clever, attention-grabbing and indicative of the content. What, specifically, should that title be?

Click here to comment or read others’ comments.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

The Awesomeness of Immersive VR for Molecular Modeling

Johanna Bobrow is by day a biologist at MIT, often by night a musician (both solo and in groups), sometimes in between an aerialist, and always my friend. When I first saw this video, I told her it was awesomer than the most awesome awesomeness ever. I firmly stand by that judgment.

Click here to comment or read others’ comments.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Small World

globeToday, in a moment of idleness and nostalgia, I tried Googling an old girlfriend I haven’t seen or heard from in decades. She has a very common name, so she’s hard to Google. I’ve tried a few times in the past, and have always failed.

Today, though, I found her. A few minor clues helped me pick her out from the dozens of others with the same name. There wasn’t much. I still don’t know where she lives, and I still don’t know if she has a family. The one and only thing I’ve learned is that she was the screenwriter for two short films, both by the same director.

So of course I Googled that director. The first hit was a list of all his movies, in order of their rankings on IMDB, with cast listings for each movie. The top-billed cast member on the top-rated movie was — (drumroll!) — my son-in-law.

No, there is no conceivable connection between the ex-girlfriend, who I lost touch with when my son-in-law was something like an infant, and the son-in-law himself. No, the ex-girlfriend never lived in the city where I and the son-in-law live now, or in any other city he’s lived in. Yes, I was vaguely aware that my son-in-law was involved with moviemaking as a serious hobby, and somewhat more vaguely aware that he might have done some acting as part of that hobby. That’s all I’ve got.

Click here to comment or read others’ comments.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

McCloskey at Chicago

deeFor an upcoming Festschrift, I was recently asked to write an account of Dee (then Don) McCloskey‘s years as a brilliant teacher at the University of Chicago, her influence on a generation of economists, and my own enormous debts to her. This was a great pleasure to write. A draft is here.

Click here to comment or read others’ comments.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Dear Old Golden Rule Days

ssyShortly before I started Kindergarten, my mother purchased a book called “Steven’s School Years”, with pockets to store my report cards and school projects, and questionnaires for me to fill out at the end of each school year.

I was not diligent about filling in the questionnaires, and they remain mostly blank. But had I been forced to, I wonder how I would have answered the following question, which was to be answered annually at the end of Grades 1,2,3,4,5, and 6:

(According to my mother, my ambition at age three was to be an electric drill, and sometime after that a rabbit. No other records of my early career inclinations seem to have survived.)

Continue reading ‘Dear Old Golden Rule Days’

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

The Generalist

groth2I never met Alexander Grothendieck. I was never in the same room with him. I never even saw him from a distance. But whenever I think about math — which is to say, pretty much every day — I feel him hovering over my shoulder. I’ve strived to read the mind of Grothendieck as others strive to read the mind of God.

Those who did know him tend to describe him as a man of indescribable charisma, with a Christ-like ability to inspire followers. I’ve heard it said that when Grothendieck walked into a room, you might have had no idea who he was or what he did, but you definitely knew you wanted to devote your life to him.

And people did. In 1958, when Grothendieck (aged 30) announced a massive program to rewrite the foundations of geometry, he assembled a coterie of brilliant followers and conducted a seminar that met 10 hours a day, 5 days a week, for over a decade. Grothendieck talked; others took notes, went home, filled in details, expanded on his ideas, wrote final drafts, and returned the next day for more. Jean Dieudonne, a mathematician of quite considerable prominence in his own right, subjugated himself entirely to the project and was at his desk every morning at 5AM so that he could do three hours of editing before Grothendieck arrived and started talking again at 8:00. (Here and elsewhere I am reporting history as I’ve heard it from the participants and others who followed developments closely as they were happening. If I’ve got some details wrong, I’m happy to be corrected.) The resulting volumes filled almost 10,000 pages and rocked the mathematical world. (You can see some of those pages here).

I want to try to give something of the flavor of the revolution that unfolded in that room, and I want to do it for an audience with little mathematical background. This might require stretching some analogies almost to the breaking point. I’ll try to be as honest as I can. In the first part, I’ll talk about Grothendieck’s radical approach to mathematics generally; after that, I’ll talk (in a necessarily vague way) about some of his most radical and important ideas.

Continue reading ‘The Generalist’

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Post-Halloween Mystery

So apparently there was this pumpkin……

A colleague spotted it on the floor in front of my office door on Sunday afternoon and was intrigued enough (or weirded out enough) to snap a couple of pictures:

Unfortunately, by the time I came into work on Monday, the pumpkin had mysteriously disappeared. And I didn’t cross paths with my colleague until late this afternoon, which is when I first learned that there had ever been a pumpkin.

Continue reading ‘Post-Halloween Mystery’

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

The Coinflipper’s Dilemma

flipperThis is the story of how I came to write a little paper called The Coinflipper’s Dilemma.

When I was in high school, my English teacher must have had a free period at the time when my math class met, because every day he would march into the math class and empty his pockets on the table, whereupon my math teacher did the same. Then whoever had put down the most money scooped up everything on the table.

I am ashamed to admit that it took me until this summer to think about computing the equilibrium strategy is in that game.

Continue reading ‘The Coinflipper’s Dilemma’

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

ACT now!!

jamiewhyteIf you like The Big Questions, you really ought to know my brash and brilliant friend Jamie Whyte. After a brief but dazzling career as a philosopher at Cambridge university (he once won the prestigious Analysis prize for the best article by a philosopher under 30), Jamie distinguished himself as a management consultant, a foreign currency trader, and, via his frequent writing, an incisive and steadfast defender of rational thought and individual freedom. His little book on Crimes Against Logic delivers brilliantly on its promise to “expose the bogus arguments of politicians, priests, journalists and other serial offenders”, and his recent collection Free Thoughts (which, true to its title, you can read for free) is essential fare for anyone who cares about clarity of thought — or, because Jamie is as funny as he is brilliant, anyone who’s just looking for a good chuckle.

Now, in his most startling career twist yet, Jamie has become the leader of a political party in his native New Zealand — the ACT party, named for its forerunner, the Association of Consumers and Taxpayers. ACT stands unabashedly for individual liberty, the rule of law and the enforcement of well-defined property rights. It campaigns against corporate welfare. It’s even pro-immigration. And thanks to New Zealand’s system of proportional representation, it actually gets representatives into parliament.

After several years of turmoil, the party turned to Jamie’s leadership in February of this year. With the boundless energy that inspires awe in everyone he meets, Jamie is re-building the party and promoting a principled free-market agenda in the run-up to the September 20 general election.

actThe downside of being a principled politician — and the reason they’re almost vanishingly rare — is that it’s hard to raise funds when you won’t cater to special interests. ACT opposes both corporate welfare and legal favoritism for union members, which cuts out most of the usual big donors. Here’s where you can help, and I hope you will.

Never before (and, I expect, never again) have I encouraged my readers to support any political party with their votes, let alone their dollars. That’s because I’ve spent my adult life being seduced and abandoned by politicians who talked a good game and then caved in to expediency when the chips were down. But Jamie — and therefore ACT — is different. I know him as a friend, and I know that principles are his passion.

You can help make ACT’s vision a reality by visiting the donation page and giving generously. Remember that a New Zealand dollar is worth about 88 cents U.S., so if you’re an American, a “$100 donation” is actually $88.

A little more background on New Zealand:

Continue reading ‘ACT now!!’

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Social Notes From All Over


(Click picture to enlarge)

The undergraduate Finance and Economics Council here at the University of Rochester held an event at my house last week, which included pizza, informal chat with professors, a rationality test (out of 31 students, exactly one scored a perfect 5 and one scored a perfect zero), a selfie shot or two, and some time on the aerial silks, where three students were brave enough to go up in the air — and each of them accomplished more in under ten minutes than I accomplished in my first ten weeks. The evidence:


Demo Lance Floto
Front Salto Dive
_________________________________________________________

Juan Bernardo Tobar
Front Salto Dive
Lev Bokeria
Crossback Straddle

Thanks to Council president Shucen Wu for making this happen, to Zach Taylor for the video, and to everyone who participated. We should do this again.

Click here to comment or read others’ comments.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Public Service Announcement — Instructors’ Manual

If you are an instructor using the new 9th edition of my book Price Theory and Applications, you might share my frustration at the fact that Cengage, for reasons presumably related to its ongoing bankruptcy proceedings, has still not managed to release the instructors’ manual, though its been ready for several weeks now.

Fortunately, not too many instructors are affected, since most are still using the 8th edition (we expect most instructors to switch over starting in January, 2014). But if you are one of those instructors, please do email me (you can click on the “contact” tab at the top of this page) so I can send you copies of at least the first several chapters to hold you over until Cengage gets it act together.

(Note that this offer does not apply to students! Your email must come from a recognizable college or university address, where I can check via the web that you are currently teaching this course!)

Click here to comment or read others’ comments.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Fortune Comes a-Crawlin’


With great humility, I am honored to inform you that Eric Crampton of Offsetting Behavior has nominated me for sainthood.

Riffing off yesterday’s Acta Sanctorum post, Eric is asking for your help in making this a reality:

So, here’s the campaign for Saint Steven.

  1. Any of you who have any kind of illness at all pray to Steven Landsburg for intervention.
  2. If you do not receive divine Landsburgean intervention, don’t tell me about it.
  3. If you do receive divine Landsburgean intervention, please leave a record of such in the comments. Preferably with a link to a doctor’s note saying that your recovery was unexpected and pretty remarkable. This should happen in maybe 1% of cases.
  4. We submit the documented evidence of the successes, while ignoring the failures. Ta-dah! Saint Steven.

My hope is to beat John Paul II’s record of two reported cures, plus the toppling of one Evil Empire, or, at a minimum, the National Endowment for the Arts. Oh, and while I’m at it I have a couple of other worldly improvements in mind. Watch your step, Paul Krugman!

Click here to comment or read others’ comments.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Hi, Mom!

MomMy mother, who reads this blog, reports that she’s lost a few nights’ sleep lately, tormented by thoughts of Knights, Knaves and Crazies. Serves her right. Once when she and I were very young, she tormented me with a geometry puzzler that I now know she must have gotten (either directly or indirectly) from Lewis Carroll; you can find it here. If she remembers the solution, she should be able to sleep tonight.

Herewith, a proof that a right angle can equal an obtuse angle. The puzzle, of course, is to figure out where I cheated.

But wait! Let’s do this as a video, since I’m starting to fool around with this technology and could use the practice. Consider this more or less a first effort. If you prefer the old ways, you can skip the video and read the (identical) step-by-step proof below the fold.

Or, if you prefer to skip the video, start here:

Continue reading ‘Hi, Mom!’

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Basic Confusion

Andre Weil was a towering figure in 20th century mathematics, his book on Basic Number Theory being just one of his many immortal contributions. (The title is something of a joke; this is a pathbreaking treatise at a very advanced level.)

None of which explains why today, fifteen years after Weil’s death, I received an email from the mathematical publisher Springer-Verlag that reads:

Dear Andre Weil,

We are writing today regarding your book *Basic Number Theory (ISBN: 978-3-662-05980-7), and to let you know about our plans
for an electronic archive, the Springer Book Archives.

Your author benefits at a glance:

– Your book will be digitized and become an eBook, published on SpringerLink, our online platform, and for e-reading devices such as the Kindle or iPad.

– Your book can never go ‘out-of-print’ and will be preserved for future generations of scientists.

– You will be provided with free access to the electronic version of your book once it is included in the archive.

– You will receive royalties, or can choose to waive them in support of charitable organizations such as INASP or Research4Life,
that help provide the developing world with access to scientific research.

Please go to the following website and select your preferred royalty option.

[URL deleted]

Yours sincerely,

[Etc.]

Continue reading ‘Basic Confusion’

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Never Give Your Credit Card to the Wall Street Journal

Having just discovered a staggering $910 (!!!!) in unexplained and unauthorized charges to my MasterCard by the Wall Street Journal (no, these were not legit renewal fees), I have just spent what seems like the better part of four days telling my story on the phone to one customer service rep after another, each of whom has found a new way to lie to me. (“We’ll call you back by the end of the day” was the most frequent lie, followed by “we’re putting through a half-refund now and someone with higher authority will call you shortly to arrange the rest” — which turned out to be two lies in one). Finally, I decided to send an email with the whole sad story, asking for a refund and mentioning that I sure hope there won’t be any resulting confusion that interrupts my delivery service. I got an email back saying “Per your request, we’re cancelling your delivery service”. Today I had no newspaper — and still no refund.

Think of the top three worst customer service stories you’ve ever heard. Chances are excellent that versions of all three have cropped up along the way in this sordid saga, the details of which I will suppress because I’m sure they’re less interesting to you than they are to me.

But I will mention this: Aside from the lying, and the lying and the lying, there’s also the fact that absolutely nobody appears to keep any record of these conversations, so that each time I call, I’m starting from scratch, explaining the whole story to a customer service rep who won’t put me through to a supervisor until I rehash the whole thing, then waiting on hold ten minutes for said supervisor, who needs the entire story told from scratch again before connecting me to the department that’s really equipped to deal with this, where I wait on hold for another ten minutes before telling my story yet again and, 50% of the time, getting disconnected. When I call back, it’s back to Square One.

Oh, yes….and they’ve also studiously ignored my repeated requests/demands that they expunge my credit card number from their records, and refused to acknowledge my repeated notifications that they do not have my authorization to charge my credit card for anything ever again.

Continue reading ‘Never Give Your Credit Card to the Wall Street Journal’

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

You Pays Your Money…..

A few months ago, I sat in a Dutailier glider and discovered that I had lived half a century with no concept of how comfortable a chair can be. My wife had exactly the same reaction. So we’d like to buy a couple of those chairs.

Unfortunately, Dutailier no longer makes the model we sat in. Fortunately, they make similar models. Unfortunately, they make one hundred and thirty nine models, of which at least fifty-nine appear to be serious contenders for “model most similar to the one we sat in”.

Those customers who somehow manage to choose among these models are then offered a choice of 113 different upholstery fabrics, 22 different wood finishes, and 10 “model options” (including “glide only”, “glide plus multiposition lock”, “glide plus autolock” and “glide plus multiposition lock plus autolock”) for a staggering 3,455,540 possible chairs. (That’s an approximation, because some models come with more or fewer options.) Color me paralyzed.

Continue reading ‘You Pays Your Money…..’

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Aaagh!

I am buying a house, and am therefore faced with the choice between a 15 year mortgage at 2.875% and a 30 year mortgage at 3.49% (as of a couple of days ago; those rates have probably changed a little by now).

The main advantage of the 15 year mortgage is that it comes with a lower interest rate and, because I’m making larger monthly payments, it keeps my money out of the stock market, which is good if the market tanks. The main advantage of the 30 year mortgage is that it allows me to keep more money in the stock market for a much longer time, which is good if the market does well.

How should I weigh those factors? Economics tells me that I will solve this problem by forecasting the return on equities over each of the next 30 years, and computing, on the basis of my forecast, which mortgage will leave me richer in the long run. No, that’s not quite right. Actually, economics tells me that I’ll make many forecasts, assign each one a probability, and thereby compute two probability distributions for my future net worth and then choose the distribution I prefer.

Now let’s get serious.

Continue reading ‘Aaagh!’

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Hi, Sierra

sierra-and-family-smallOur occasional commenter Sierra Black is the subject of a 20/20 documentary scheduled to air on ABC tomorrow night (Friday the 20th) at 10PM Eastern Standard Time. You should watch it.

I’ve had the great blessing of getting to know quite a lot of you (some better than others of course) in the few years I’ve been blogging, but Sierra is one of the few I’ve met face to face. She and her husband Martin have more than once been guests in my home; my daughter occasionally babysits for Sierra’s daughters Rio and Serena. (The picture at the top was taken in my living room.) My family and Sierra’s camp together (along with quite a few other friends) every summer, and while we’re not always in close touch, we do keep track of each other. They’re good people.

The 20/20 program will focus on Sierra and Martin’s unconventional relationship choices. We here at The Big Questions are strong enthusiasts for all things consensually unconventional.

Continue reading ‘Hi, Sierra’

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share

Some Days I’m A Super Genius

wileI want to build a large addition to my house. The town limits my above-ground square footage to the point where all I can build is a relatively small addition.

But underground square footage doesn’t count! So I toyed with the idea of building a 3/4-acre basement under my 3/4-acre yard.

This turns out to be rather expensive.

Therefore, I used my brain.

My new plan is to completely bury my existing house under an enormous mound of dirt, declare the whole thing a basement, and build a new house on top of it, with an internal staircase going down into the old house. The new construction can then be quite large, since I’m starting from zero above-ground square feet. A system of periscopes will preserve the views from the new “basement” windows.

This has got to be far cheaper than fresh underground construction. Dirt is notoriously cheap. That’s where the expression “dirt cheap” comes from.

Continue reading ‘Some Days I’m A Super Genius’

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Share